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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月印度证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：26
【目录或简介】：
Equity markets cheer FY11 Budget: Muted expectations and a lack
of negative surprises sparked off a post budget relief rally in the equity
markets. Global investor sentiment also stabilized following betterthan-
expected non-farm payroll data in the US and easing of concerns
perataining to sovereign risks in Europe. Despite marginal appreciation
of DXY, the Rupee appreciated by 2% vs. the US$ over the month.
• Institutional investors supportive: FIIs turned marginal buyers over
the month. Among local institutions, mutual funds remained sellers,
while insurance companies remained supportive, particularly in the
primary markets, which saw enhanced activity due to Government
divestments. Our Money Flow monitor suggests inflows into
Financials and IT services and outflows from Energy and Power.
• But the bond markets remain concerned: Yields have risen by 10-
20bp subsequent to the Budget, despite the Government targeting a
lower fiscal deficit. Near-term concerns include a) rising inflation,
implying that the RBI will likely continue to tighten, b) the
government’s borrowing program is typically front ended. Also,
targeted inflows of Rs360B from 3G auctions and Rs400B from PSU
divestments – an all-time high – assume that global liquidity will
remain benign. We expect the yield curve to continue to rise and
flatten over 2010 as monetary tightening continues and credit growth
picks up. Consumer and state-owned banks are most vulnerable to this
trend and we reiterate our underweight stance on both sectors.
• Insider activity. Insiders were marginal net buyers over the month.
Net buys: GMR, Jindal Steel & Power, Kotak Mahindra, HDFC,
RIL
Net sells: Infosys Tech, ITC, Ambuja Cement, HDFC Bank,
M&M, Hindusan Unilever
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