2010年3月中国海运行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：凯基证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：24
        【目录或简介】：
Having endured the financial crisis in 2009, the marine transport sector has resumed
growth in 2010 across the container, bulk and oil shipping segments. As a whole, the
worst times were over in 1H09, but supply remains an important variable in deciding
the pace and strength of recovery. Container and oil shipping should be the first to
recover as ship supply decreases.
􀂄 Regarding container shipping, demand in Europe and the US is recovering steadily.
Stuck in the red, many container shipping companies around the globe have cancelled
or at least pushed back delivery of container carriers. Besides, shipping companies have
kept about 10% of container ships at bay to cut costs, control ship supply and help
shipping rates recover. We think the container shipping market bottomed in 2009.
􀂄 As far as bulk shipping is concerned, we expect iron ore and coal to be traded more
briskly in 2010 when China’s demand will rise while European and American steel
plants will jack up capacity utilization. However, bulk ship supply will hit new highs in
2010 when new bulk ship launches will total 60mn deadweight tonnage (dwt), up 39%
YoY. Supply pressure will keep a lid on bulk shipping prices in 2H10, but if iron ore
contract negotiations come through sometime between the first and second quarters of
2010, BDI might rally in the near term.
􀂄 As for oil shipping, we expect global oil demand to climb in 2010, lifting marine oil
shipments by 2.9%, 6 ppts higher than in 2009. Regarding capacity, single-hull tanker
elimination will drive down fleet growth from 8.6% in 2009 to 4.1% in 2010. Oil
tanker fees will begin to fall on slow seasonality from this point on, but we believe that
shipment growth and capacity growth slowdown will bolster shipping prices in 2H10.
􀂄 Among container shipping operators, we recommend Evergreen Marine (2603.TW,
NT$19.95, OP), with a target price of NT$23, on such themes as sectoral recovery and
enviable value of its wharf assets. China Shipping Container Lines (02866.HK;
601866.SS) is also a good target as it should resume raising shipping rates with prudent
capacity expansion. Our target price is HK$3.7.

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