2010年5月全球海运行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月全球海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：55
        【目录或简介】：
Global Shipping
Bulker Demand Robust;
Containers Rebounding
Tanker Market: The contango widened modestly last
week, with the 2-month Brent time spread ending the
week at $2.03/bbl – the highest level since October 2009
when the spread spiked briefly to $2.53/bbl (Exhibit 72).
Floating storage remained strong last week and nearly
inline with the previous week’s levels. We continue to
monitor potential developments in the GoM, given BP’s
recent difficulty in mitigating the oil spill (p. 20).
Dry Bulk Market: After the previous week’s CISA
announcement that mills have negotiated on pricing
terms with private companies, demand remains firm.
However, in the wake of what seems like a never ending
debate between Chinese mills and the big three iron ore
producers, we have seen China increase imports from
other countries such as Indonesia and Russia. Dry bulk
demand has remained firm in the face of large
newbuilding delivery numbers YTD. Market
fundamentals have supported this, given China’s
decreasing coal and steel stockpiles and the upcoming
summer demand season (and thus thermal coal
demand) in the Northern Hemisphere. Port congestion
has helped support the dry bulk market thus far though
we are starting to see signs that this may be easing
(Exhibit 85). Nevertheless, the near-term outlook for
bulkers remains favorable.
Container Market: We believe that supply discipline –
not supply and demand fundamentals – will dictate 2010
container shipping freight rates. We held a conference
call with Containerisation International last week. We
came away from the call feeling that shipping companies
are now and are likely to remain extremely disciplined in
managing capacity due to liquidity constraints. Amidst
considerable uncertainty on container shipping demand
and ship deliveries, carriers are focusing on gradual,
disciplined capacity additions to maintain freight rates
and profitability. Freight rates are likely to continue on
an upward trend over the next 6-12 months, in our view.

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