【出版时间及名称】:2010年3月美国美国汽车零售市场研究报告
【作者】:NORTHCOAST RESEARCH
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:54
【目录或简介】:
Initiating Coverage of AAP and ORLY with BUY
Ratings; NEUTRAL on AZO
Overview
l We are initiating coverage of AAP, AZO, and ORLY. We recommend
investors BUY shares of AAP and ORLY given their exposure to the DIFM
market. We are remaining on the sidelines with AZO shares as we think its
tertiary commercial parts program limits the growth prospects relative to
ORLY and AAP.
l We believe relatively tight credit markets, a weak labor market, and a frugal
consumer will result in new vehicles sales staying below their 2006-2007 run
rate longer than expected. This should cause the average age of the nation’s
light vehicle fleet to increase through 2012-2013, which should aid
end-market demand for aftermarket automotive parts and accessories.
l Going forward, we anticipate that consumers will invest more money on a
regular basis into their vehicles to further increase vehicle longevity, which
should aid the DIY and DIFM channels.
l In 2010, we expect the entire sub-industry to grow between 4.0% and 5.0%,
led by the DIFM channel, which we expect will expand by 5.0% to 6.0%. We
are modeling DIY end-market demand to grow by 2.5% to 3.5%.
Conclusion
Given that AAP, AZO, and ORLY already control 30% of the DIY channel and
independents and jobbers specialize in commercial sales, we anticipate the
largest market share gains will occur in the DIFM market. This would favor
ORLY and AAP as their commercial programs are more developed than AZO's.
We think the three retailers can easily expand their combined DIFM foothold to
15% of the market from the 6% they have today, while slightly expanding their
market share in the DIY channel.
Based on our outlook for DIFM sales to grow at a faster rate than revenue in the
DIY channel, we believe ORLY and AAP represent better investment
opportunities relative to shares of AZO as their more developed commercial
parts programs combined with internal productivity initiatives should allow them
to generate the largest share gains over the next 2 to 3 years. As a result, we
are initiating coverage of AAP and ORLY with BUY ratings and establishing
12-month price targets of $52 and $48, respectively. We are NEUTRAL on
shares of AZO.