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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月南美证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：46
【目录或简介】：
Brazil rate cycle to start. Cautious domestics. We remain N Brazil, UW
domestics and OW commodities. Increasing rate cycle focus a lose/lose for
domestics. We expect a 50-bp rise March 17 and a 300-bp cycle. With our
6.2% GDP expectation and positive output gap, policy risks are to the
upside. Domestic stocks usually underperform around the first hike. Rate
cycle will likely impact earnings as economy has to slow. Currency
risk/reward still unattractive, with the government capping upside and the
FX fundamentally overvalued. Political noise will only build into October,
and positioning – whilst improved – is still full and a concern in face of
likely developed market outperformance. Valuations are not expensive,
and we are bullish the revisions cycle, but there is no valuation cushion.
Favor Brazil commodities, which remain well supported by our
conviction global growth and low rate view. Earnings are especially
depressed, operating leverage high, and ‘normalized’ valuations at 2001-2
levels. Valuations are in line with domestics, and only slightly above
average, despite more depressed earnings. Average commodity bull market
consistently around 36 months; we are only in month 11. Materials and
energy are the two largest sector OWs in our model portfolio (Page 20).
Revision cycle picking up again (Page 14), with a long way to go, and
cyclicals leading. A good Q4 reporting season is supporting a
reaccelerating earnings revision cycle. 12 mth Fwd EPS up 34.7% (+9%
from start of season). The cycle still has legs, with revisions lagging
previous recoveries (despite stronger regional fundamentals) and LatAm
lagging EM in this cycle. Our thematic calls (Mexico cyclicals and Brazil
commodities) are performing well and leveraged to the earnings recovery.
Mexico remains our top pick, focused on cyclicals given the greater
earnings and macro upside. Mexican GDP expectations continue to rise,
driven by the improving US outlook, and we still see upside risks; the
currency is undervalued, and the market is underowned. We narrow our
model portfolio underweight of AMX in the runup to the expected April
close of the TII/CGT transaction and trim back on Banorte given strong
outperformance and delay in our local rate cycle call.
In Brazil we trim our large Vale OW, given outperformance and with
iron ore expectations up a lot. We switch Gerdau into holdco Met.
Gerdau given the discount. We add BM+F on the strong issuance
pipeline, rate and FX volatility, 22% valuation discount vs peers. We add
Vivo, which remains deeply discounted, with strong cash flows, overdone
competition and termination rate fears, and consolidation optionality. In
Colombia we add Pacific Rubiales on production and reserve upside.
Table of Contents
Focus on Brazil.........................................................................3
Model Portfolio Changes .........................................................3
Brazil: Domestics vs Commodities.........................................5
Performance: Back in Green .................................................11
Valuation: Value in Themes...................................................13
Earnings: Consensus Rising.................................................15
Flows/Positioning: Stabilization............................................17
Hindsight Trades ....................................................................19
Latin America Model Portfolio by Country...........................21
Latin America Model Portfolio by Sector .............................22
Composite Valuation Indicators............................................24
Latin America Big 30..............................................................26
Consensus Asset Allocation .................................................29
Data Pages ..............................................................................30
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