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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国水泥行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
We maintain our long-term positive view but turn cautious on
2010: Following our recent meetings with leading cement players in
China, we believe that the government’s efforts to boost cement
consumption and curb capacity growth will have a more powerful
impact on demand/supply dynamics and hence on prices in 2011, not
2010. Capacity expansion plans that have been approved or are under
construction will continue to come on line in 2010. We estimate
additional supply of ~200MM tons (equal to ~12% of 2009 capacity)
will enter the market this year. While we estimate demand growth of
11% in 2010, which we think should be able to absorb most of the
additional supply, pressure on prices will not likely ease until 2011.
Hence, we forecast overall cement prices will only move along with
seasonality and will not surprise the market on the upside in China in
2010.
• Two measures should play a key role in pricing in 2011: We expect
NDRC to announce a detailed implementation process of two
important initiatives in 2Q-3Q10: 1) rural subsidy, including timing
and financing; 2) the full closure of entire low-grade mills in 2010-12.
A total of over 300MM tons capacity (equal to ~18% of 2009 capacity)
is planned to be phased out in the next three years. We believe both of
these measures will help ease supply pressure beginning in 2011.
• Earnings estimate revisions: We raise our 2009/10 earnings estimates
for BBMG and Anhui Conch by approximately 8%/21%. For BBMG,
we incorporate its recent acquisitions in the cement business in
northern China, while for Anhui Conch, we raise our sales volume
assumption as demand growth in China in 2009 (18%) was ahead of
our expectation. For others, we believe 2009 results will be largely in
line and thus leave our estimates unchanged.
• Rating and PT changes: To reflect our view that cement prices will
unlikely outpace seasonality in 2010, we cut our PTs for most of the
companies under our coverage and downgrade Anhui Conch (H-share)
to Neutral from Overweight.
• Recommendation: Within the Greater China cement universe, BBMG
followed by CNBM are our preferred picks.
Table of Contents
Takeaways from our China cement trip..................................3
Summary of our top-down view..............................................3
1. Cement prices ..........................................................................................................3
2. Demand....................................................................................................................4
3. Supply ......................................................................................................................6
Recommendation, ratings and estimate changes..........................................................6
Company meeting takeaways .................................................7
China National Materials (1893 HK, not rated)...........................................................7
BBMG (2009 HK, OW)...............................................................................................8
China Cement Association...........................................................................................8
China National Building Materials (3323 HK, OW) ...................................................9
Anhui Conch (914 HK, Neutral; 600585 CH, OW).....................................................9
Financial and valuation summary ..............................................................................10
Companies
BBMG Corp...............................................................................................................14
Anhui Conch Cement - H and A................................................................................18
China National Building Material..............................................................................23
Taiwan Cement ..........................................................................................................27
Asia Cement...............................................................................................................31
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