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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国建材行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：51
【目录或简介】：
Fundamental, Industry, Thematic, Thought Leading
Deutsche Bank Company Research's Research Product Committee has deemed
this work F.I.T.T. for investors seeking differentiated ideas. One of the axiomatic
truths of investors' homebuilding recovery scenarios is meaningful market share
gains for the large public builders. In this report, we carefully analyze market share
numbers and drivers and find some surprising results. Most importantly, market
share gains aren't nearly as automatic as investors think, which means investor
expectations are probably too optimistic.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
FITT Research
Top picks
M.D.C. Holdings (MDC.N),USD35.75 Buy
Companies featured
D.R. Horton (DHI.N),USD13.09 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -1.73 0.52 -0.19
P/E (x) – 25.0 –
EV/EBITDA (x) – 25.0 38.5
K. Hovnanian (HOV.N),USD4.29 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -8.94 -4.67 -1.93
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – – –
KB Home (KBH.N),USD17.64 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -1.33 -2.39 –
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – – –
Lennar (LEN.N),USD17.29 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -2.45 -2.02 –
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – – –
M.D.C. Holdings (MDC.N),USD35.75 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 0.53 -0.46 0.22
P/E (x) 60.1 – 163.7
EV/EBITDA (x) – 139.1 29.0
Meritage Homes (MTH.N),USD23.54 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -2.12 -0.75 -0.15
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – 208.1 99.9
Pulte Homes (PHM.N),USD11.49 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -3.95 -1.32 -0.58
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – 6.4 33.7
Ryland Homes (RYL.N),USD24.89 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -3.74 -2.08 -0.48
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – – 134.0
Toll Brothers (TOL.N),USD20.14 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -4.68 -1.19 0.18
P/E (x) – – 110.5
EV/EBITDA (x) – 72.7 30.2
Fundamental: Getting the market share numbers right
The mythology of public builder market share begins with measurement problems:
common market share metrics simply have not been accurate in depicting market
share trends in the past five years. We recommend two approaches –
closings/completions and adjusted gross orders/new home sales. Both correctly
capture fluctuations in market share trends over time.
Industry: Public builder market share fell dramatically during this downturn
For most investors, perhaps the most surprising finding in this report will be that
the top 10 builders lost nearly 30% of their market share from 2005 to 2009. There
was some recovery in 2009, but we think this was mostly due to massive
government intervention in the housing market that favored the large builders.
Thematic: We forecast flat/slightly rising market share in the next few years
We go beyond the simple argument that private builders are bankrupt and identify
10 fundamental drivers of market share. Over the next few years, three are
positive, three negative and four neutral. Overall, we expect market share for the
top builders to be flat to slightly rising; 2005 peak share won’t be revisited.
Thought Leading: Market share winners and losers, or ribbons for
everyone?
We drill down to individual company market shares and identify DR Horton, MDC
and NVR as winners in the last year; however, since most of the industry remains
unprofitable, near-term market share gains are largely a moot point. The option
value of having a larger footprint may also be small if a recovery is drawn out.
Valuation: Market share optimism part of a general downplaying of tail risk
Housing demand remains weak and government stimulus is waning, yet investor
optimism remains high on the longer-term recovery story (of which market share
is a big part). We think investors are too optimistic. Through the downturn,
investors have consistently downplayed the tail risks to the longer-term view and
we think that is the case now as well. In our view, a more balanced risk/reward
perspective on the homebuilders would include a healthy appreciation for a
number of longer-term tail risks including the foreclosure crisis, higher mortgage
rates, unprecedented job losses and substantial excess inventories.
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