2010年3月美国建材行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国建材行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：92        【目录或简介】：
HAMP updates useful, but foreclosure pipeline still to begin clearing in 2010
The biggest force in the resale market over the past 12-15 months has arguably
been the stalling of the foreclosure pipeline. Borrowers that became delinquent
haven't been foreclosed upon in a timely fashion; instead, they have been sitting in
modification limbo. They can't sit in limbo forever, so our expectation has been
that in 2H10 the stalled foreclosure pipeline will begin to clear through increased
distressed sales. Recent changes to the HAMP program don't change this
outcome, in our view; in fact, we think they may even make it more likely.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Most of the HAMP program changes increase its efficiency
At this stage in the foreclosure crisis, it is reasonable to assume that the vast
majority of delinquent mortgages will be considered for a modification program.
The obviously enormous and complex nature of this undertaking is what has
driven the stalling of the foreclosure pipeline; therefore anything that clarifies or
enhances the HAMP program is likely to accelerate the pipeline clearing. And
indeed, this is what many of the recent changes to the HAMP program do.
Changes such as temporary assistance for joblessness, guidelines for outreach,
expansion to borrowers in FHA loans and bankruptcy all clarify current areas of
confusion and/or discretion for servicers, which will allow servicers to more
quickly process borrowers for modification. Increasing incentives for borrowers,
investors and second lien holders also smooths the path for many outcomes.
Principal write-down now a part of HAMP, but it’s no panacea
The Obama administration finally responded to the numerous calls for principal
reduction to be a focus of modification efforts, but the new approach isn’t the
cure-all that headlines make it out to be. More principal write-downs are now likely,
but borrowers won’t notice much because their payments will still be reduced to
the same 31% front-end DTI. Recidivism rates will still likely be just as high –
currently more than 50% of modifications fail after twelve months. The half that
earn their principal write-downs over three years aren’t likely to be too impressed
by what they find at the end of the rainbow. 1st lien LTVs will only have been
written down to 115%, and combined LTVs will be even higher. We’re not so sure
that remaining that far under water will be a great incentive to borrowers.
FHA refinance program – another go around of Hope for Homeowners?
The FHA refinance program that seeks to prevent foreclosures by refinancing risky
loans into FHA loans is similar to the failed Hope for Homeowners program,
except that it adds some enhancements such as payoffs for second lien holders.
These payouts may increase its success somewhat, but it may not provide
enough incentive for the principal lender. In particular, we think 1st lien lenders will
be reluctant to write down what are otherwise performing loans.
Valuation and risks
Our builder valuations apply a multiple (incorporating CDS based liquidity risk) to
our forecast fully impaired book values. See valuation section (page 40) for details.
Chief risks for the builders are a weakening broader economy & increased
foreclosures. On the upside, risk includes better than anticipated affects of the
federal homebuyer tax credits could spur housing demand.

Table of Contents
Government action............................................................................ 3
Consideration of principal write-downs now required in HAMP...............................................3
FHA-refinance: encouraging principal write-downs...................................................................4
HAFA program to encourage short sales vs. foreclosures........................................................5
Foreclosures..................................................................................... 10
Realtytrac foreclosure filings...................................................................................................10
Loan level data indicates a growing pipeline of foreclosures..................................................11
Volumes Local resale trends........................................................... 15
Volumes.................................................................................................................................15
Prices .....................................................................................................................................21
MLS listings vs. distressed inventory at a local level ..............................................................27
DB shadow inventory database ..............................................................................................30
Housing Inventory ........................................................................... 35
MLS listings ............................................................................................................................35
Valuation / risks .......................................................................................................................39
Top 25 metropolitan areas.............................................................. 40
1) Houston, TX ........................................................................................................................41
2) Dallas-Fort Worth, TX..........................................................................................................43
3) Phoenix, AZ.........................................................................................................................45
4) Washington DC Area ..........................................................................................................47
5) Las Vegas, NV.....................................................................................................................49
6) Inland Empire, CA ...............................................................................................................51
7) Austin, TX............................................................................................................................53
8) Chicago, IL ..........................................................................................................................55
9) San Antonio, TX...................................................................................................................57
10) Orlando, FL .......................................................................................................................59
11) Charlotte, NC.....................................................................................................................61
12) Jacksonville, FL.................................................................................................................63
13) Denver, CO .......................................................................................................................65
14) Indianapolis, IN..................................................................................................................67
15) Tampa, FL .........................................................................................................................69
16) Minneapolis, MN...............................................................................................................71
17) Atlanta, GA........................................................................................................................73
18) Raleigh-Cary, NC ...............................................................................................................75
19) New York Area ..................................................................................................................77
20) Philadelphia, PA ................................................................................................................79
21) Los Angeles, CA ...............................................................................................................80
22) Tucson, AZ ........................................................................................................................82
23) Sacramento, CA ................................................................................................................84
24) Baltimore, MD...................................................................................................................86
25) Miami, FL ..........................................................................................................................88

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 建材行业 行业研究 Modification 美国 研究报告 行业 建材