2010年3月土耳其证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月土耳其证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
Will optimism fade?
We believe the issues related to the constitutional amendment package to be
introduced by the government have the potential to change the relatively
optimistic “consensus” view of the economists in Turkey. The amendment
package has now firmly taken centre stage and will become the dominant political
item of the next months, with the potential to divert focus away from economic
policy. Further political uncertainty and/or slippage/delay in fiscal commitments
could weigh heavily on the optimistic consensus view of the past several months.
Focusing on sector-specific themes and strong dividend yields
Domestic political risks have risen over the last month, and investors will need to
watch political developments closely. In this context, we recommend that
investors focus on sector-specific themes and take positions in companies that
offer stable earnings prospects and what we see as relatively attractive valuations.
Of equal importance, we expect companies with high dividend yields to
outperform in the dividend season. We believe that the investor appetite for
sustainable and high dividend yields could increase given the low interest rates.
Telcos no longer Overweight due to rising concerns on irrational competition
We recommend Overweight positions on REITs, Cement, White Goods, Oil &
Gas, Aviation, and Banks. We are Underweight on Insurance, Retail, Beverage,
Steel, and Telecom. Turkish telcos are now Underweight, as concerns over
irrational competition in the mobile segment have again arisen.
Arcelik and Tupras are added to our top picks, Anadolu Cam removed
In line with our sector allocations, our top picks are Arcelik, Cimsa, Garanti,
Sinpas REIT, TAV Airports and Tupras.

Table of Contents
Investment summary ........................................................................ 3
Will optimism fade? ..................................................................................................................3
Economic & political outlook ........................................................... 5
Political Issues ..........................................................................................................................5
Will optimism fade? ..................................................................................................................6
Turkish equity strategy ..................................................................... 7
Politics come to centre .............................................................................................................7
Sector performances....................................................................... 11
Rising political tension triggered a sharp sell-off across the board .........................................11
The hunt for dividends.................................................................... 12
Top dividend payers in our coverage ......................................................................................12
Consensus revision trends – Charging in the reporting season ..............................................14
Sector allocations & top picks........................................................ 15
Mapping value across the ISE.................................................................................................15
Sector rankings and top picks .................................................................................................19
Performance of our top picks portfolio ...................................................................................21
Top picks portfolio methodology ............................................................................................21
Mapping value across ISE............................................................... 22
Market data...................................................................................... 26
Datascan........................................................................................... 29
Key market aggregates ................................................................... 31
Foreign participation in ISE ............................................................ 32

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