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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月印尼地产行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：55
【目录或简介】：
Multiple gains at the peak of the cycle: Indonesian property firms
are characterized by: 1) huge land bank (10-15 years of development);
2) township developer nature; 3) 12-18 month property turnover; and
4) 10%-50% of revenue is recurring income. Hence, Indonesia’s
property companies tend to produce relatively lower ROEs but trade at
high P/Es in an upcycle. Also, in previous cycles, their multiples have
tended to appreciate from start to peak.
• Property up-cycle continues: We estimate another c.20-60% upside
potential for stocks under our coverage; we expect the up-cycle to last
through 2010. This view assumes no interest rate hikes in FY10 (BI
support on pro-growth policy), firm GDP growth, and 17% bank loan
growth for FY10E. Discounts to NAV normally narrow during a
stable interest rate environment. In the last six months, we view that
underperformance is due to concern over BI hikes and marketing sales
sustainability. We view it as an opportunity to collect the stocks as
inflation is still in line with expectations and marketing sales continue
to show a tepid recovery.
• Our top pick is CTRA with a PT of Rp1,050 as we expect the
discount to NAV to narrow from 42% to 13%. We see two potential
key drivers: 1) undervaluation on its subsidiaries; and 2) a solid
recovery in marketing sales.
• Near-term driver—indicative marketing sales have shown a
positive turnaround, with marketing sales up by 74% y/y on an
average YTD.
• Longer-term—we remain positive on long-term fundamentals due
to: 1) middle income creation; 2) rising affordability; 3) rising
employment; and 4) increasing availability of financing. We also
remain positive on housing demand in Jakarta and Greater Jakarta areas
as GDP per capita in Jakarta is rising faster than average growth
coupled with rising employment. Improved affordability and middleincome
creation should benefit in particular, which caters to middlelow
end housing.
• Key risks to our view: 1) Any emergence of rate hike expectations,
2) A rise in construction costs. 3) Political uncertainty.
Table of Contents
Strategy on the sector..............................................................3
Regional real estate sector comparison.................................5
Price target setting methodology............................................9
Share price analysis.................................................................9
Marketing sales likely remain robust throughout FY10 ......11
Impact on foreign ownership rules, if implemented............12
Firm fundamentals in the medium to long term...................13
Jakarta and Greater Jakarta’s property outlook..................15
Key Risks ................................................................................17
Companies
Ciputra Development .................................................................................... 20
Lippo Karawaci Tbk ..................................................................................... 31
Bakrieland Development............................................................................... 40
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