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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本地产行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：36
【目录或简介】：
Bottomline: We lower our Industry view from In-Line
to Cautious, downgrade Mitsui Fudosan / Mitsubishi
Estate from EW to UW, as we believe stocks do not
discount major risks ahead, and leaving unfavorable
risk-reward at this point. Both have more than 20%
downside to our TPs and our EPS estimates are by far
the lowest in the Street for F3/11 and F3/12.
Debates: (1) Is large office supply problematic for
Tokyo? (2) Have most negatives been discounted
(roadmap from F3/11)? Bulls contend that the large
supply of new offices will not hurt supply/demand since
developers will halt/put off plans in the recession, and
much of the new supply is in outlying areas, with limited
impact on central Tokyo. Few plans have been delayed
or suspended, though. We expect the supply to keep
vacancy rates high at 8-10% for 2-3 more years, spelling
underperformance vs. TOPIX for big realtors, leading
indicators of vacancy rates. We see no signs of full
recovery in overseas real estate investment in Japan,
with (1) large office supply ahead, (2) rising delinquency
rates on non-recourse loans, (3) a possible ruling to void
renewal fees for residential tenants, and (4) no bottom
yet for real estate prices, and thus less appealing real
estate yields than in other developed nations.
Our preference (ascending): In terms of risks, we are
most concerned about Mitsui Fudosan, where the
earnings outlook is poor and the new 3-year plan was
delayed. Next is Tokyu Land with a large downside,
followed by Mitsubishi Estate, where Maru Bldg /
Shinmaru Bldg revisions coincide with large supply in
2012 to spur revenue concerns. Then comes Tokyo
Tatemono, before Nomura – second after Sumitomo for
swift condo sales recovery – and our top pick Sumitomo
Realty with a relatively solid earnings outlook.
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