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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国家电行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：46
【目录或简介】：
Conclusion: We expect 2010 home appliance shipment
growth (+10% YoY) to be higher than 2009 growth off a
low 1H09 base, export recovery, rising consumer
confidence and further improvement in subsidy effects.
We are OW Haier Electronics as a proxy for booming
rural home appliance demand, and Gree for its good
position in the product mix shift to high energy efficiency
and inverter aircons.
How Will the Property Market Impact on Sales? The
property market impacts on new purchases for new
houses in urban areas, which accounts for ~20% of
domestic home appliance demand, on our estimates. As
the time lag could be six months to over a year, the
property impact will still be positive in 1H10 but turn
negative in 2H10.
Will Subsidy Impacts Diminish? The three provinces
started rural subsidies in December 2007 and delivered
152% YoY sales growth under the program in 2009 (the
second year of implementation), boding well for 2010
growth in national market.
How will Raw Material Price Hikes Hurt Margins?
Due to different cost structures, washers may see less
cost pressure than refrigerators and aircons. However,
aircon leaders have the strongest capability to pass on
cost pressures through price hikes and product mix
improvement.
How Will the New EER Standard Impact on Aircons?
We believe the new standard will lead to product mix
shift and ASP increase. Market leaders should benefit
with good position on high EER and inverter aircons.
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