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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国家电行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：124
【目录或简介】：
Growth is back
Sales growth to pick up
We look for China’s household appliance sector to return to high sales growth
this year, following, by the sector’s standards, relatively slow growth of 14.2% in
2008 and 16.2% in 2009. Inside we highlight two stages of development for the
domestic home appliance sector: pre-100% penetration growth and post-100%
penetration growth. The sector is now in a period of pre-100% penetration
growth, on our reading.
Strong growth momentum forecast over five-year period
As we see it, the main difference between China and developed markets (US
and Japan) is that China could be in a position to sustain robust growth
momentum in the post-100% penetration phase. Our view reflects the fact that
China’s urban and rural markets likely won’t hit 100% penetration at the same
time. Hence, the relatively slow growth that would ordinarily be expected post
100% penetration should be offset by continued growth elsewhere, resulting in
sustained high growth for the sector as a whole.
Growth profiles differ by sub-sector
We see new and replacement demand, together with a revival of exports, driving
overall sector growth. But each sub-sector will see different growth rates due to
their unique characteristics and sources of demand. For brown goods, we think
replacement demand will dominate, since penetration is already high.
Conversely, new demand is likely to be the main driver of growth in small
appliances. Between these two extremes is the white goods sub-sector, we
believe, on account of different product life cycles.
Market leaders likely to benefit most amid consolidation
We think existing market leaders stand to benefit most amid continued M&A
activity and industry consolidation. Our view is that acquirers should experience
rapid growth post M&A as synergies are realised and scale economies kick in.
We note that the combined market share of major players Gree and Midea
improved to 66% in 2009, from 54% in 2006.
Contents
Executive summary 4
Quick review 5
Featured companies 5
Washing machines 5
Refrigerators 5
A/Cs 6
TVs 6
Microwave ovens 6
Industry thesis 7
Growth to regain momentum in 2010F 7
Pre-100% penetration growth portends rapid development 7
Sources of demand 8
Increase in industry concentration to benefit major players 8
Risks 9
China’s household appliance sector 10
Introduction 10
Household appliance sector 10
Competitive analysis of the household appliance sector 13
Household appliance sectors in international markets 15
Key points 15
Rationale of development stages analysis in developed markets 16
Implications for the household appliance sector in China 18
China is in pre-100% penetration growth 18
Demand — where is it coming from? 24
New demand drivers 26
Replacement demand drivers 28
Drivers of both new and replacement demand 29
Export recovery 35
Financial performance of the sector 36
Overview and breakdown 36
Margins 37
Gearing 37
Drilling down in each sector 38
M&A –– supplementary growth drivers 38
Industry concentration to continue increasing 38
White goods sector 40
Brown goods sector 47
Small appliance sector 51
Featured companies
Hisense Electric 54
TCL Corp 61
Changhong 68
Zhejiang Supor 75
Joyoung Co Ltd 83
Guangdong Midea 91
Gree 98
Qingdao Haier 106
Hefei Sanyo 113
Comparison snapshot 120
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