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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月香港宏观经济图表
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：35
【目录或简介】：
Employment growth
accelerates 3
More job openings 3
Does supply match demand? 4
Charts 7
GDP — Back to positive growth territory 8
Private consumption — Strengthening strongly 10
Fixed investment — Solid growth 12
Merchandise trade — Improving 14
Trade in services — Led by tourism 16
Prices — Stay modest 18
Money supply and credit — Ample liquidity 20
Interest rates and exchange rates — Rates stay low 22
Jobs and wages — More jobs 24
Asset prices — Concern on exit strategy 26
Data and forecasts 29
Hong Kong SAR 30
China 31
Global 32
Disclosure appendix 33
Disclaimer 34
Growth in employment is accelerating…
… implying the base for recovery is
broadening…
… which should also help consumption
The latest statistics suggest that growth in the number of jobs
available has accelerated from an average of 2.9% m-o-m in
2009 to 10.8% in the first two months this year. In addition,
sector mismatches in terms of job supply and demand are
minimal, with the exception of the construction sector,
which only accounts for 8% of employment. The shortage of
construction jobs will ease as work on major public
infrastructure projects starts to accelerate later this year and
next. Overall, we think the employment growth witnessed
since late last year is sustainable and will help support
private consumption. This supports our private consumption
forecast of 4.9% y-o-y for 2010 vs. -0.3% for 2009.
Highlights of the month
Retail sales growth to pick up as mainland visitors return.
Retail sales growth slowed in January from December both
y-o-y and m-o-m. Growth in sales of tourism goods slowed
despite tourist arrival growth remaining flat. This implies
that US, European and other Asian tourists have lower
spending power than visitors from mainland China, where
growth was down in January. Their return in February for
the Lunar New Year holiday implies that retail growth will
pick up again.
HKD strengthens again. HKD weakened from 7.75 to 7.77
early this year as a result of some unwinding of USD carry
trade positions. This proved to be short-lived and the HKD
recently strengthened again to around 7.758.
Outflows to increase. China has already started to gradually
tighten its credit policy and the Fed is also preparing to
follow suit, having hiked the discount rate by 25bp in mid-
February. The moves by China and the US have raised
concerns about the exit strategies of other countries, leading
to liquidity outflows from Hong Kong.
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