The Outlook for Natural Gas and LNG in China in the War against Air Pollution

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2018-12 OXFORD The Outlook for Natural Gas and LNG in China in the War against Air Pollution 61页

Contents
Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. ii
Preface .................................................................................................................................................. iii
Glossary ............................................................................................................................................... vii
1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1
2. Evolution of the war on air pollution in China ............................................................................... 2
2.1 History ........................................................................................................................................... 2
2.2 Strengthened measures against SO2 and NOx under the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006–10) .......... 3
2.3 Introduction of PM2.5 controls under the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–15) ................................... 6
2.4 The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (2013–17) and reduction of coal use ....... 8
2.4.1 The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (2013–17) ........................................... 8
2.4.2 Measures to promote reduction of coal use ......................................................................... 10
2.4.3 Revision of the Environment Protection Law and administrative systems of responsibility for
environmental protection targets ................................................................................................... 11
2.4.4 The Action Plan for Preventing Air Pollution: the final step in strengthening air pollution
measures in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (after 2016) ............................................................................ 12
2.5 The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–20) ............................................................................................ 16
2.6 The Winter Clean Heating Plan in Northern Area (2017–21) ..................................................... 17
2.7 The Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War (2018–20) .................................................. 18
2.8 Summary: air pollution now and in the future.............................................................................. 19
3. Trends in natural gas supply and demand ................................................................................... 21
3.1 Long-term trends in natural gas consumption ............................................................................ 21
3.1.1 Macro-level trends since 2000 .............................................................................................. 21
3.2 Background of stagnation in gas demand 2014–16 ................................................................... 23
3.2.1 Trends in natural gas and environmental policies: shortage of supply (around 2013) ......... 23
3.2.2 Natural gas price reforms and changes in price competitiveness (2014–16) ...................... 23
3.3 Impact of measures against air pollution on natural gas supply and demand (2017–18) .......... 25
3.3.1 Trends in supply and demand for natural gas in 2017–18 ................................................... 25
3.3.2 Impact of action on air pollution and the problem of gas shortages ..................................... 28
3.3.3 Outlook for full-year natural gas supply and demand in 2018 .............................................. 29
3.4 LNG import trends ....................................................................................................................... 30
4. Outlook for natural gas demand .................................................................................................... 33
4.1 Projections for long term natural gas supply and demand by various organizations ................. 33
4.1.1 Projections and assumptions ................................................................................................ 33
4.1.2 NDRC position document on establishing long-term stable natural gas supply system ...... 34
4.1.3 CNPC estimates of potential natural gas demand generated by coal-to-gas switching....... 35
4.1.4 Key figures in the Winter Clean Heating plan in the northern area ...................................... 36
4.1.5 Subsidies to promote use of natural gas under air pollution measures ............................... 38
4.2 Discussion on outlook for medium-term natural gas consumption (up to 2020)......................... 39
4.2.1 Approach to projecting natural gas consumption ................................................................. 39
5. Outlook for medium-term LNG demand and impact on the international market .................... 42
5.1 Outlook for indigenous natural gas production ........................................................................... 42
5.2 Outlook for pipeline gas imports ................................................................................................. 43
5.2.1 Pipeline capacity ................................................................................................................... 43
5.2.2 Pipeline gas import trends and outlook ................................................................................ 44
5.3 Outlook for LNG demand ............................................................................................................ 45
5.3.1 Capacity of LNG receiving terminals and LNG imports ........................................................ 45
5.3.2 Observations on the LNG demand outlook .......................................................................... 46
5.4 Impact on the international LNG market ..................................................................................... 47
5.4.1 Impact on international LNG supply and demand up to around 2020 .................................. 48
5.4.2 Long-term impacts up to around 2030 .................................................................................. 49
References ........................................................................................................................................... 51

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