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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球水泥行业研究报告
【作者】：Davy Research
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：96
【目录或简介】：
Overcapacity and exports threaten prices; we favour
emerging markets over developed
• Global cement demand has bottomed, but the return
to growth will be sluggish.
• We forecast global excess capacity to rise from 680mt
at December 2009 (China 115mt) to 1.2bn tonnes at
December 2012 (China 400mt); this will drive
seaborne trade from 85mt in 2009 to 240mt in 2012.
• Q1 2010 is a "lost quarter" for US and Europe, with
volumes -20-40% yoy. Worryingly, prices are rolling
over in the US and parts of Europe (UK, Spain, Italy)
as well as in some emerging markets.
• We favour emerging markets over developed
(although US stimulus will drive growth) and prefer
Asia and Latin America over Africa/Middle East.
There is massive excess capacity in Saudi, Iran,
Pakistan; imports will drive prices lower in Africa.
We prefer Holcim and HeidelbergCement over Lafarge and
the Italian cement stocks
• We are cutting our EPS for 2010 and 2011 by 10%
and 12% respectively (now 6% below consensus).
• Stocks are not cheap (7.1x 2010 EV/EBITDA, longterm
average of 6.1x) and will struggle to make new
cycle highs. Energy will become a headwind as 2010
progresses.
• Holcim is now our top cement pick given its best-inclass
finances, margins, free cash flow and track record
as well as our more positive stance on India.
• HeidelbergCement still offers compelling risk-reward;
Lafarge's end-market exposure (45% EBITA AME)
and balance sheet mean it will struggle.
Contents
Summary 3
Global cement – demand recovery patchy as new capacity comes on-line 6
Global cement trade set to increase but unlikely to turn into a flood 9
Global cement pricing showing some cracks 12
Analysis of key global markets 15
India – prices down but not cracking 15
China – will it, won't it (export)? 24
Pakistan – now a major exporter 31
Turkey – the rogue player and serial exporter 33
Iranian cement market 35
Saudi Arabia – 10mt of inventory a real concern 37
UAE – prices have collapsed 38
Egypt – prices could fall in 2011 as new capacity comes on-line 40
Sub-Saharan Africa – the big importer 42
Nigeria – prices under pressure 44
US cement market – pricing the big issue for 2010 46
Construction demand fell sharply in 2009; we expect flat cement volumes in 2010 47
Imports reduced as demand contracts 49
Cement prices under pressure in 2009 51
Cautious outlook for 2010 warranted; we expect prices to fall 2% 52
Cement markets summary 54
Positive energy benefits running out from H2 2009 61
Energy costs are rising again – coal in particular 63
FY 2010 energy outlook – most companies flagging stable energy costs 64
Companies: Holcim top cement pick 65
Sector has underperformed of late but has been a massive outperformer
over the past 12 months 65
Downgrading our assumptions to reflect weaker market outlook and horrendous
Q1 2010 66
Downgrading 2010 EBITDA by 4% and 2011 by 6% 68
Davy EBITDA 2% below consensus in 2010 and 4% in 2011 – risk to numbers
remains to the downside 69
What the companies are guiding for 2010 70
Margins set to bounce, mainly driven by costs 72
Stock picks – we prefer Holcim over Lafarge, Buzzi over Italcementi and like
HeidelbergCement on valuation 73
Valuation not particularly compelling at these levels after recent sector rally 74
Holcim investment case – quality shining through 78
Heidelberg investment case – risk-reward compelling 80
Lafarge investment case – risk to end-markets 82
Buzzi Unicem investment case – waiting on Eastern Europe 84
Italcementi investment case – cement price weakness a real concern 86
Appendix – SOTPs 88
Important disclosures 94
Contacts 96
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