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2020年保险展望
Insurers adapt to grow in a volatile economy
适应经济动荡、保险公司实现不断增长
As insurance firms adapt to maturing markets and economic turbulence, in the long run, their ability to integrate technology, talent, and business-model innovation into legacy environments may be the key to success.
随着保险公司适应日趋成熟的市场和经济动荡，从长远来看，他们将技术、人才和商业模式创新融入传统环境的能力可能是成功的关键。
Where do insurers stand as they enter 2020?
进入2020年，保险公司的地位如何？
THE insurance industry remains resilient, continuing to generate growth around the world and maintaining overall profitability despite turbulence in the global economy.
尽管全球经济动荡，但保险业仍保持弹性，继续在全球范围内创造增长，并保持整体盈利能力。
In the United States, the world’s biggest insurance market, the property and casualty (P&C) sector is building upon a strong 2018 in which the industry saw net income soar 66 percent to US$60 billion, thanks to a 10.8 percent boost in net premiums written and nearly breaking even on underwriting (after losing US$23.3 billion the year before). US insurer results deteriorated a bit but were still positive in the first half of 2019, with the industry posting an underwriting gain of US$5.4 billion (down from US$6.1 billion for the same period in 2018) and a profitable combined ratio of 97.3 (up from 96.2).
在全球最大的保险市场美国，财产和意外险（P&C）行业正建立在强劲的2018年的基础上，该行业净收入飙升66%，达到600亿美元，这要归功于净保费增长10.8%，承保业务几乎收支平衡（前一年亏损233亿美元）。美国保险公司业绩稍有恶化，但在2019年上半年仍为正值，该行业承保收益为54亿美元（低于2018年同期的61亿美元），盈利综合比率为97.3（高于96.2）。
Globally, Lloyd’s, the world’s biggest insurance market entity, reported a profit (US$2.8 billion) for the first half of 2019 after two full years of losses. While 2019 consolidated figures for the global industry are not yet available, nonlife premiums were up 3 percent in real terms last year, above the 10-year average of around 2 percent, with close to 3 percent growth expected again for full year 2019 and 2020. However, growth is expected to be more robust in some developing regions. Nonlife premiums in advanced markets are only expected to rise 1.8 percent through 2020, compared to 7 percent in emerging markets—slightly down from the 10-year average due to concerns about China’s slowing economy and trade disputes with the United States (figure 1).
全球范围内，全球最大的保险市场实体劳合社（Lloyd's）在连续两年亏损后，公布了2019年上半年的利润（28亿美元）。虽然2019年全球行业综合数据尚未出炉，但去年非寿险保费实际增长3%，高于10年平均约2%的水平，预计2019年和2020年全年将再次接近3%的增长。不过，一些发展中地区的增长预计将更加强劲。预计到2020年，发达市场的非寿险保费只会上涨1.8%，而新兴市场的非寿险保费将比10年平均水平略低7%，原因是人们担心中国与美国的经贸纠纷正在放缓（图1）。
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