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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：68
【目录或简介】：
The child allowance bill, a centerpiece of the DPJ administration’s policy
platform, was approved in a Lower House plenary session on March 16 with
the support of the three coalition parties, the New Komeito party, and the
Japan Communist Party. For FY2010, the bill aims to give households
¥13,000 per month for each child of junior high school age or younger. The
measure will cost the government around ¥2.3 trillion. If the allowance is
raised to the full amount pledged by the administration (¥26,000 per month
per child) from FY2011, the cost to the government would be ¥5.3 trillion.
• Public support for the child allowance is mixed. The biggest criticism is that
there is no funding source. Fundamentally, however, the issue comes down to
one basic question: Which is the greater threat to Japan—the fiscal deficit
problem or the deflation problem? We think deflation is the greater threat and
must be resolved first. Although Japan’s public debt has risen six-fold over the
last 25 years, climbing to 122.9% of GDP in FY2009 from 41.1% of GDP in
FY1985, over the same period the benchmark 10-year JGB yield has fallen
from 6.3% to 1.3% (Figure 1).
If the fiscal deficit were the greater threat, it stands to reason that interest rates
would have risen. Instead, long-term rates have fallen to around 1% precisely
because deflation persists, and meanwhile the growth of the fiscal deficit has
effectively offset de-leveraging in the household and business sectors. From
this perspective, it is actually preferable that the government has no funding
source for the child allowance. In short, one’s opinion of the child allowance
likely depends on whether one believes Japan’s first priority should be on
resolving the fiscal deficit or on resolving deflation.
Table of Contents
Child Allowance Represents Tax Cut for the Consumption
Generation ................................................................................3
Macroeconomics ......................................................................8
Derivatives: Summer Performers..........................................14
Sector: Industrial & Consumer Electronics .........................18
Sector: Electronic Components............................................20
Sector: Precision Instruments ..............................................22
Sector: Chemicals ..................................................................24
Sector: Steel, Wire & Cable, Glass........................................26
Sector: Autos, Auto Parts......................................................28
Sector: Aviation......................................................................30
Sector: Retail (Large Stores, Specialty Retailers) ...............32
Sector: Banking......................................................................34
Sector:Nonbanks....................................................................36
Sector:Brokers .......................................................................37
Sector:Insurance ....................................................................38
Sector: Real Estate, Housing, Construction ........................40
Sector: Games........................................................................42
Sector: Media..........................................................................44
Sector: Telecommunications ................................................46
Sector: Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals .............................48
Sector: Food and Beverage...................................................50
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