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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球酒店行业研究报告
【作者】：法国兴业银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：60
【目录或简介】：
Theme As the global hotel industry moves into a slow and gradual recovery, industry
professionals and observers agree that the return to growth will start in the East, with strong
expectations for Asia and the Middle East in 2010, subdued optimism for Europe and
persistent fears for the North American market. The major European markets should also
pick up in varying degrees, with France and the UK looking better orientated than Germany,
Spain and the Benelux. Supply growth was of limited significance during the downturn due to
the extent of the collapse in demand. However the limited supply growth expected in 2010
and 2011 should help to protect business levels.
􀁑 Sector opinion In this context we expect to see significant disparity among the hotel
companies in terms of RevPAR growth and EPS in 2010, and especially 2011. Having
favoured the more defensive profiles over the past two years, we now believe it is time to
switch our focus to companies that offer strong operational leverage. From a 12-month
perspective, we believe that the upmarket hotel segment should logically see a more
pronounced recovery. At the same time the asset-intensive companies seem to offer the best
rebound capacity.
􀁑 Stock selection The demerger of Accor into two entities is likely to dominate the sector
newsflow over the coming quarters. We are convinced that the strategy makes sense both
on an operating level and on a stock market level. Accor (Buy) remains our preferred sector
stock for 2010 (TP €52, vs €53). We are upgrading Sol Melia (TP €7.3, vs €2.4), Whitbread
(TP 1,800p, vs 1,050p) and Marriott (TP $32, vs $16) from Sell to Buy, and Choice Hotels (TP
$35, vs $22) from Sell to Hold. We have raised our target on Starwood Hotels from $21 to
$40 and reiterate our Hold rating. By contrast, we are downgrading InterContinental (TP
880p, vs 900p) from Buy to Sell and maintaining our Sell rating on NH Hoteles (TP still €1.0).
􀁑 Catalysts We see potential for a positive surprise on the pace of recovery in the sector with
average prices potentially following occupancy rates up more quickly than in previous cycles,
as was the case with the decline observed at the end of 2007. This scenario would reinforce
our stock selection within the sector, with the more cyclical companies being better placed
to benefit from this situation.
Contents
4 Sector overview
5 Performance and valuation
5 Two major changes expected to take place
6 Leading sector indicators
7 Investment case
7 Time to get aggressive on the sector
8 Europe remains attractive compared with the United States
11 Preferred stock: Accor
11 Whitbread, Sol Melia & Marriott International upgraded to Buy
12 InterContinental downgraded to Sell (vs Buy, TP cut to 880p)
13 Sound balance sheets among the major players
13 Summary of SG recommendations for the hotel sector
14 Sector history and investment strategy
14 Prefer volatility during the recovery phase
14 A cyclical sector
15 Analysis of the recent past
16 A new type of cycle up until the recovery?
16 A cycle that is at last under control
21 The slowdown in supply growth will support the recovery
22 The cycle upturn will start in the east
22 Europe comprises countries with very distinct markets
24 Turnaround in 2010e, strong leverage in 2011e
28 Valuation
28 Our estimates
28 Main valuation method
37 Equity strategy view
37 Recovery is around the corner, stay Overweight
Company profiles
38 Accor
41 Choice Hotels International INC
43 Intercontinental Hotels
46 Marriott International INC
49 NH Hoteles
51 Sol Melia
54 Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide INC
57 Whitbread
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