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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月中国酒店行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：70
【目录或简介】：
Conclusion: We initiate coverage on economy hotel
chain 7 Days Group with an Overweight rating and
China Lodging Group (HanTing) with an Equal-weight
rating. We have an Equal-weight on Home Inns, as we
believe upside to the current share price is limited.
We see a long-term growth opportunity in China’s
branded economy hotel industry, driven by a demand
shift from non-chain hotels to chain hotels, rapid growth
in the number of small and medium size companies, and
growing leisure travel. The share of chain hotels is as
low as 11% in China compared with 62% in the US. The
penetration of branded economy hotels is also only
around one-tenth of that in the US.
We like 7 Days for its attractive valuation and potential
to scale the franchise model: We are positive on 7 Days’
superior cost control and expect the company’s
membership strategy to pay off. We forecast a 3-year
EBITDA CAGR of 38% in 2010-12, driven by expansion
of franchise business and operating leverage. Quarterly
results beating estimates would potentially enhance
market confidence in management execution.
We are EW HanTing, which has priced in high market
expectations and leaves little room for disappointment,
in our view. The stock is trading at a 40% premium to 7
Days and a 6.5% discount to Home Inns, based on
2011e EV/EBITDA. Although the stock may overshoot in
the near term because of benefits from the Shanghai
Expo – HanTing has the highest exposure to the
Shanghai market among its peer group – we think the
risk-reward profile is unattractive at this point.
Risks: 1) A reduction in business travel or discretionary
consumer spending, 2) overcapacity and competition,
and 3) management execution risk.
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