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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球宏观经济及投资策略报告
【作者】：花旗银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：76
【目录或简介】：
We continue to expect a sustained but uneven global recovery in 2010 and
beyond, Asia-led and with Europe lagging. We again make more upgrades than
downgrades to our 2010-11 GDP growth forecasts, with upgrades this month
for the US, Japan, Argentina, Australia, Canada, Czech Republic, Hong Kong
and Switzerland, but lower 2010 forecasts for Greece, the UK and Sweden.
An increasing number of central banks have started to exit from the recent
loose stance and exceptional policy support measures. But, consistent with
disparities in growth and inflation prospects, exit strategies will proceed at an
uneven pace, with Asia and Latin America leading, but the ECB lagging. We
expect the Fed to keep policy rates on hold until Q4, and have scaled back the
expected pace of ECB tightening in 2011.
Chief Economist Essay (by Willem Buiter and Minggao Shen, see page 12). In
China, higher reserve requirements and selective quantitative credit controls
have not curbed credit growth sufficiently. Higher interest rates and Yuan
appreciation are needed to prevent further overheating in the real economy.
Additional macroprudential controls are required to prevent booms and
bubbles from developing in the land, property and stock markets. These policy
measures and controls are unlikely to be implemented in time to prevent a
classic asset boom, bubble and bust sequence.
We still expect that risk assets will generally outperform cash and government
bonds in coming months. Citi rate strategists suggest that it makes sense to sell
the US and UK against core Euro Area (or even Japan), especially at the shortend
of the curve. Citi credit strategists believe that valuations still offer some
upside, but expect spreads to be range bound near-term. Citi equity strategists
believe investors should buy the dips but not chase the rallies too hard. For
securitized products, Citi strategists generally favour overweights.
Overview — Timing the Exit Strategy 4
Chief Economist Essay — Is China Blowing Bubbles? 12
Country Commentary 28
United States 28
Japan 29
Euro Area 30
Germany 31
France 31
Italy 32
Spain 32
UK 33
Switzerland 34
Sweden 34
Denmark 34
Norway 34
Canada 35
Australia 36
New Zealand 36
China 37
Brazil 38
Mexico 38
Argentina 39
Venezuela 39
Russia 40
Turkey 40
Hungary 41
Czech Republic 42
Romania 42
Nigeria 43
South Africa 43
India 44
Korea 44
Hong Kong 45
Rates Strategy 48
Credit Outlook: Sunny, With A Chance of Hurricanes 50
Global Equity Strategy: 12 Months On 52
Securitized Products Strategy 54
Citi Commodity Price Forecasts 56
Citi Foreign Exchange Forecasts 59
Appendix A-1 74
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