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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国寿险行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：47
【目录或简介】：
4Q earnings return to normalized level
Statutory earnings of Deutsche Bank’s life insurance universe were $3.3 billion in
4Q’09, compared with $5.9 billion in 3Q’09 and $7.8 billion in 2Q’09, $1.9 billion in
1Q’09, and a loss of $6.5 billion in 4Q’08. Excluding unusual items, we estimate
the 4Q’09 earnings were $2.2 billion. We expect quarterly operating earnings to
remain in the $2 to $3 billion range, assuming stable capital markets.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Global Markets Research Company
Capital growth meaningful, helped by various items outside of earnings
Statutory capital increased by 10.5% sequentially to $76 billion, driven by capital
contributions, increased deferred tax assets (as a result of regulatory capital relief),
gains on sales or debt retirement, and reinsurance transactions. Net income only
added $954 million to capital in 4Q’09. Prudential had the strongest sequential
growth of 25%, reflecting the $1.5 billion after-tax gain from the Wachovia joint
venture sale. Principal had a 2% decline in the quarter.
RBC ratios mostly higher
The 2009 RBC ratios exceeded the 2008 RBC ratios for 10 out of 15 of the
companies, largely driven by an increase in total adjusted capital. Companies also
benefited from the re-rating of RMBS and CMBS that mitigated increased capital
charges from negative credit migration. Some insurers were hurt by an increased
minimum MEAF factor, and others had a reduction in the capital charges.
Protective and Prudential had the biggest improvements in RBC ratios, and
Hartford and Phoenix had the largest declines. MetLife’s RBC ratio improved even
though its total adjusted capital declined.
Excess capital not that significant for most insurers
We estimated the excess capital of the insurers by comparing year-end 2009 RBC
ratios to our estimates of minimum RBC ratios and capital cushions. We expect
life insurers to operate at higher RBC ratios than before coming out of this financial
crisis. Companies, however, have not yet increased prices to factor in this
additional capital, so ROEs will be weighed down. Even when combining excess
capital at the subsidiaries with excess cash at the holding companies, we found
that most life insurers had little excess capital. Unum and Prudential stand out as
having significant excess capital positions relative to their size. Genworth also has
significant excess capital, but it also has large debt maturities in 2011 and 2012.
Many helpful charts and tables
Our report contains the following tables: historical statutory results including
annual results from 2002 to 2009, quarterly results over the past eight quarters,
organization charts illustrating the statutory entities, and statutory dividend
rules/capacity.
Valuation and risks
Our target prices are based primarily on price-to-book multiples relative to
expected ROEs. Downside risks include further deterioration in the equity and
credit markets, rating agency downgrades, and additional capital raises. Upside
risks include a continued equity market rally, further credit spread narrowing,
easing of insurance regulations, and improved disclosure on variable annuity living
benefits.
Table of Contents
Statutory earnings decline to more normalized level, as expected ...........................................9
Statutory and GAAP investment losses continue ...................................................................10
Minimal dividends to holding companies................................................................................11
Statutory capital benefits from year-end actions.....................................................................14
Comparison of statutory vs GAAP consolidated earnings.......................................................17
Individual company observations............................................................................................18
Valuations and risks.................................................................................................................21
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