2010年3月韩国寿险行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月韩国寿险行业研究报告
        【作者】：韩国三星证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：112
        【目录或简介】：
WHY SHOULD YOU READ THIS REPORT?
20 years after talk began of life insurer IPOs, Tong Yang Life was listed in 2009
and other big players are now preparing to go public. Given their sheer size and
the importance of their position in group corporate governance, life insurer IPOs
will be major events for the Korean stock market. Despite growing investor
interest, in-depth research involving the sector has been scant due to
confidentiality issues and complex business structures. This report aims to
provide a thoughtful insight into the life insurance industry, by examining: 1) the
benefits of investing in life insurers; 2) their survival strategies amid intensifying
competition; and 3) various macroeconomic variables that affect their
fundamentals.
􀂄 SAMSUNG VS MARKET
• Growth outlook: The market generally sees the life insurance industry as
having already entered a mature stage, with only moderate growth prospects.
Although we agree to a certain degree, expecting the industry to grow only
slightly more than Korea's GDP over the next three years, we foresee: 1)
explosive growth in the corporate pension market; 2) qualitative growth in
insurance demand in the wake of population aging; and 3) expansion of new
distribution channels. Earnings performances among companies should vary
significantly, depending on various factors such as flight to quality, captive
customers, and synergies with affiliates.
• Profitability outlook: There are expectations that life insurers will enjoy
strong growth profitability after negative investment spreads diminish. We,
however, expect their 2010-2012 EPS CAGR to be limited to a low-teen
percentage, due to: 1) falling profits from loading premiums as regulatory risk
grows and competition intensifies; and 2) dropping profits from risk
premiums amid rising proportions of policies with disease-related benefitsalthough
funding cost declines should boost profits from savings premiums.
• Competitive landscape: With dominant distribution channels, economies
of scale, and brand power, large life insurers are likely to outgrow non-life
insurers and small-to-medium-sized life insurers. That said, competition from
rivals should be intense, as non-life insurers have solid fundamentals and
diversified product portfolios while small-to-medium-sized life insurers target
niche markets with new distribution channels. With cut-throat competition
looming large, the performances of large life insurers will hinge on whether
they can gain market share without margin erosion.
􀂄 INDUSTRY IN INVESTMENT STRATEGY
• Valuation premium vs. discount factors: The life insurance industry
stands to benefit from several qualitative premium factors-20 years of IPO
anticipation, sizeable IPOs, and strong brand power. It also faces quantitative
discount factors such as single-digit earnings growth and low ROE growth.
Stock performances will depend on which of the two is dominant.
• Alternative investment strategy recommended: Life insurers are
viewed as high-beta stocks, given the firms' high leverage, asset & liability
management (ALM) imbalance, and the characteristics of products sold. Large
life insurers should benefit in times of inflation, such as in a rising interest-rate
or stock-price environment, while non-life insurers (eg, Samsung Fire &
Marine) should outperform when uncertainties rise.

CONTENTS
1. Introduction: 20-year wait over p 3
2. Investment summary:
A new alternative
p4
3. Valuation:
An EV&AV based-assessment
p13
4. Momentum analysis: Four catalysts p32
5. Aging population to drive qualitybased
growth
P45
6. Separate accounts to drive growth p50
7. Pension: A source of new growth p54
8. Profitability to improve gradually p63
9. Large players counter attack P76
10. Sales channel revolution P87
11. Other issues P94
12. Too early for optimism or
pessimism
p101
Company analysis
1. Korea Life p103
2. Kyobo Life p105
3. Tong Yang Life p107
􀂄 AT A GLANCE
Sector overview: Life insurance policies
provide monetary benefit in the event of
disease or death. Korean life insurers offer
pure life insurance, annuities, and 3rd-sector
policies-individual accident, health/sickness,
nursing, etc-together with non-life insurers.
Key players: Banks, non-life insurers,
securities brokers.
Maturity: Even if the industry appears
saturated from a quantitative standpoint, its
qualitative growth prospects remain solid.
Growth: The life insurance industry has
massive expansion potential thanks to
qualitative growth in demand following a shift
in Korea's demographic makeup.
Potential: By facilitating fund-raising,
improving corporate transparency, and
strengthening communication in the market,
life insurers should take the financial industry
to new heights in terms of share
performances, and expand the pool of
financial blue chip investments.
Competitiveness: As barriers between
financial segments come down, life insurers
face competition not only from their peers but
also from banks and securities firms
undergoing transformations into financial
holding companies. To realize their full
potential, life insurers must become
comprehensive financial-services providers.

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