2010年3月墨西哥证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月墨西哥证券市场投资策略报告        
【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：68
        【目录或简介】：
Emerging markets (EM) neutral, but
Mexico remains a key overweight within
EM, geared to US recovery
 We remain optimistic about Mexico’s
prospects for 2010, despite headwinds
 We focus on individual stocks with solid
fundamentals rather than on the index
Vamos, Mexico
We believe that Mexico successfully crossed the first
hurdle it faced in a challenging 2010. We say this because
earlier this year, HSBC global equity strategist Garry Evans
and his team made several adjustments to their market calls,
which included a downgrade of EM to neutral.
Representing a hurdle crossed successfully, despite the
recent downgrade of EM equity markets, the call on
Mexico was not changed. Mexico has been one of HSBC’s
key global overweights since August 2009 when GEMs
equity strategist John Lomax upgraded it from neutral. Mr.
Lomax prefers to overweight markets and sectors that are
more sensitive to recovery in the US than in China. Mexico
and Taiwan are his strongest overweight calls supported by
US growth. In our view, Mexico should benefit from a US
manufacturing upswing. In addition, HSBC’s global equity
strategy team sees a favorable near-term environment for
equities with possible upside surprises in fundamentals over
two to three quarters.
But Mexico still faces headwinds. Earnings prospects lag
behind those of its peers. According to the Thomson
Financial Datastream consensus, Mexico’s aggregate EPS
will grow 17% in 2010, slower than the 27% pickup
expected for Brazil and the 30% estimate for GEMs.
Moreover, valuation is not compelling. According to
Thomson, Mexico trades at 14.7x PE for 2010e, which
implies premiums of 13% to Brazil, 9% to the Latam
average, and 18% to the GEMs average.
Focus stocks. We prefer to focus on individual stocks, rather
than on the index. We favor companies with solid fundamentals
that we believe should benefit from economic recovery. The
stocks we highlight in this report are Banorte, FEMSA, Geo,
Grupo Mexico, Empresas ICA, Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro
Norte (OMA), and Wal-Mart de Mexico.

Global stock market overview 4
Mexico stock market overview 9
4Q09 earnings reports and
2010e growth inertia 17
Company visit notes 22
Focus stocks 31
Company profiles 35
Wal-Mart de Mexico 36
Empresas ICA 38
Grupo Financiero Banorte 40
FEMSA 42
Corporacion Geo 44
Grupo Mexico 46
Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte (OMA) 48
Macroeconomics 50
Mexico: MXN stronger,
allowing for later hikes 51
US: Forecast update 55
Global economy: More
hurdles to cross 59
Disclosure appendix 62
Disclaimer 65

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