2010年3月土耳其银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月土耳其银行业研究报告
        【作者】：荷兰国际集团
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：55
        【目录或简介】：
Balance sheet trends. Loan growth continued at a faster pace: +4.5% in
December quarter vs. +2.2% in September. Commercial loans (two-thirds of
the total) showed signs of a rebound for the first time since 2007. Adding
9.3% on the quarter, mortgages were the strongest of all. In total loans,
Tekstilbank (+21.7%), TEB (+10.6%) and Finansbank (+7.5%) outperformed
while Garanti with an 0.8% decline and Akbank (+0.7%) lagged. Deposit
growth (+5.2% QoQ) exceeded loan growth: the LDR in the system stands at
76.3% as at end-December versus 76.9% in September. The total capital
ratio remained above the 20% mark and Tier-1 capital is 18.5%. TSKB (25%),
Akbank (22%), Garanti (21%), Isbank (18%) and Yapi Kredi (18%) have
reported the highest total CARs. Asset quality improved.
Income statement highlights. Earnings growth was driven mainly by
net interest income, net fees and decline in operating expenses. The most
improved bank in NIM was Garanti (+65bp), followed by TEB (+50bp), Yapi
Kredi (+40bp) and Halkbank (+37bp). Fee business was also strong in the
last quarter. Most banks reported in line with expectations. The exceptions
were Garanti, Akbank and TSKB which beat the consensus.
We see selected value. We maintain our view on interest rates in that
they will remain low until 3Q10. We expect margin declines of an average
75bp for the sector in 2010. Our preferred stocks are Garanti (decline in cost
of risk and volumes should offset falling margins; selling the remaining
insurance stake is a source of upside risk), Yapi Kredi (best exposure to
consumer entering new credit cycle, compelling valuation and under-owned)
and Isbank (trading at a discount, equity portfolio) amongst large caps and
TSKB among the midcap banks.

Industry trends 3
Growth measures by bank 7
Profitability 8
Efficiency and costs 10
Capital ratios 11
CAR vs LDR 13
Net income and provisions 14
Asset quality: NPL additions QoQ 16
Market shares 17
Market shares – majors...........................................................................................18
Market shares – all ..................................................................................................20
Market share gains YoY – all ..................................................................................21
Market share gains QoQ – all..................................................................................22
Balance sheet composition 23
Assets mix ...............................................................................................................24
Liabilities mix ...........................................................................................................25
Loan mix..................................................................................................................26
Deposits mix............................................................................................................27
Currency mix in funding...........................................................................................28
Currency mix in lending...........................................................................................29
Fixed income securities...........................................................................................30
Duration gap............................................................................................................31
Financials 33
Akbank ....................................................................................................................34
Fortis .......................................................................................................................36
Garanti Bank ...........................................................................................................38
Halkbank .................................................................................................................40
Isbank......................................................................................................................42
Sekerbank ...............................................................................................................44
TEB .........................................................................................................................46
TSKB.......................................................................................................................48
Vakifbank.................................................................................................................50
Yapi Kredi Bank.......................................................................................................52
Disclosures Appendix 54

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