2009年12月土耳其银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月土耳其银行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
With our expectation of zero bottom-line
growth in 2010, valuations will act as a
catalyst for Turkish banks
􀀗 We prefer banks that combine an
improved earnings outlook in 2010 with
attractive multiples
􀀗 Isbank and Vakifbank upgraded to OW(V)
on attractive valuations, TEB
downgraded to UW(V) after recent
outperformance; other ratings maintained
Loss of earnings momentum in Q3 to continue in 2010:
Turkish banks’ Q3 financials were the first indication of a
loss of earnings growth momentum. We expect this trend to
continue through 2010, reflecting a lack of further interest
rate cuts and sluggish loan growth. Our base case
assumptions of sector NIM contracting by 77bp and loans
expanding at a low double-digit pace lead to our estimate of
flat y-o-y net income in the Turkish banking sector next year.
At an average 2010e PE of 8.1x, valuations are not
demanding: Having underperformed the MSCI EM index for
the past three months after a strong rally, Turkish bank
valuations (2010e PE of 8.1x and P/BV of 1.3x) are not
demanding compared with CEEMEA peers (average 2010e
PE 10.9x and P/BV 1.6x). Although we do not foresee any
major positive fundamental catalysts for the banking sector in
2010, we believe it still offers value through selective names –
those with better earnings outlooks and attractive multiples.
Isbank and Vakifbank upgraded to OW(V), TEB
downgraded to UW(V): Following the Q3 results, we have
revised our forecasts, leading to changes in the target prices
for some of the Turkish banks under our coverage. We
upgrade Isbank and Vakifbank to Overweight (V) from
Neutral (V), reflecting their attractive valuation multiples, and
downgrade TEB to Underweight (V) from Neutral (V) on its
recent outperformance and expensive multiples. We maintain
our ratings on Garanti, Halkbank and Bank Asya at
Overweight (V), YKB at Neutral (V) and Akbank at
Underweight (V). We set out the changes to our target prices
and ratings in the table on the left.

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