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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月墨西哥房屋建筑行业研究报告
【作者】：ITAU 证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：70
【目录或简介】：
Mexico’s Housing Sector:
Fundamentally Sound
We are initiating coverage of the five Mexican homebuilders—Ara, GEO, Homex,
SARE and Urbi—with outperform recommendations on GEO and Urbi and
market-perform recommendations on Ara, Homex and SARE. Together, these
names have an average potential upside of 18%, in our estimation. The average
2010E P/E multiple for the sector is 12.2x and the average 2010E EV/EBITDA
multiple is 7.0x.
Mexican housing fundamentals remain strong but require new financing models
to regain their previous growth rates. Coordination among public agencies will
likely be key to restoring dynamism to the sector. In our opinion, the outlook for
Mexican homebuilders is positive, as they will likely be able to continue taking
advantage of the strong fundamentals of the industry.
Highlights
􀂄 Our top picks are GEO and Urbi. Both companies are well positioned to
take advantage of the solid fundamentals of the Mexican housing industry.
We believe that both companies will be able to gain additional market share in
the affordable segment through public agencies. The improvement in
collections that these companies have achieved in the past year will likely
result in a smooth transition to the new accounting rules introduced in
January (revenues will now be recorded after a home is titled, rather than
under the percentage-of-completion method). We therefore believe that both
GEO and Urbi will likely be able to maintain strong cash positions.
􀂄 2010 recovery for housing sector. The prevailing strategy for
homebuilders in 2010 will be to continue to focus on the defensive affordable
segment. New project starts and housing inventories have decreased to their
lowest levels in years, and smaller players have left the market. This implies
new opportunities for public homebuilders.
􀂄 The main risks for the five companies under coverage will be to achieve
visible improvements in their working capital cycles, reductions in financial
costs and positive free-cash-flow generation. All five companies can take
advantage of the government’s continued support of the sector. Our
attention, however, will be focused on cash-flow generation and efficient
working capital.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECTION 1 INVESTMENT THESIS…………………………………………………………..3
SECTION 2 MEXICAN HOUSING INDUSTRY OUTLOOK ……..………………………8
SECTION 3 CORPORACIÓN GEO……………………………………..………..………….25
SECTION 4 URBI ........................................................................................33
SECTION 5 CONSORCIO ARA......................................................................41
SECTION 6 HOMEX.....................................................................................48
SECTION 7 SARE........................................................................................56
APPENDIX 1 SEGMENTATION TERMS AND MORTGAGE PRODUCTS
BY AGENCY ..............................................................................63
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