2010年4月全球宏观经济研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球宏观经济研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：84
        【目录或简介】：
Global capital spending likely to rise this year at its fastest pace in a
quarter century
• Even as the fiscal picture in Greece worsens, the Euro area is on track
for a growth bounce into midyear
• Brazil to kick off a broadening in EM central bank tightening with a
50bp hike next week
• The BoJ to ease further as it shifts to a more activist anti-deflationary
stance
Bruce Kasman
(1-212) 834-5515
bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
David Hensley
(1-212) 834-5516
david.hensley@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Joseph Lupton
(1-212) 834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Global capital spending is starting to boom
Capital spending is generally one of the last components of demand to recover
during a global economic upturn. However, a coincident turn in growth and
capital spending is now under way. Global investment demand lifted in the
middle of last year with business capital spending expanding at a solid 6.6%
annualized pace during 2H09. High-frequency indicators from the largest capital
goods producers suggest that demand for capital equipment accelerated dramatically
during the first four months of this year. Shipments from the US,
Germany, and Japan—which closely track global investment spending—rose
at a more than 20% annualized rate last quarter. Meanwhile, the German Ifo
survey points to a further sharp acceleration in demand for capital goods in
April. This surge partly reflects restocking, but it now looks likely that global
capital spending will rise at a double-digit pace over the course of 2010—an
outcome that could prove as strong as any over the past quarter century.
In countries that have avoided recession (China, India) or have been lifted by
strong commodity prices and capital inflows (Brazil, Australia), a desire to expand
plant and equipment lies behind investment spending gains. However, the
global investment upturn is now largely being driven by growth in countries in
which utilization rates are depressed and business attitudes remain cautious.
This dynamic is in line with our views about the “paradox of lift,” which allows
for investment spending to pick up even at this point in the business cycle
when operating rates are still low.
Having slashed capital expenditure budgets in an unprecedented manner during
the financial crisis, the level of investment spending dipped below the level
of depreciation in the major developed economies last year. Consequently,

Contents
Economic Research note
US: higher NAIRU won’t force the
Fed’s hand 11
Euro area labor market edging
closer to stabilization 13
The UK financial sector is
important via credit, not output 15
Aussie inflation on the back
burner...for now 19
Malaysia’s BoP reflects private
sector diversification 21
Global Economic Outlook Summary 4
Global Central Bank Watch 6
The J.P. Morgan View: Markets 7
Selected recent research from
J.P. Morgan Economics 10
Data Watches
United States 23
Euro area 29
Japan 35
Canada 41
Mexico 43
Brazil 45
Andeans 47
United Kingdom 49
Sweden/Norway 53
Central Europe 55
South Africa 59
Australia and New Zealand 61
China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan 65
Korea 69
ASEAN 71
Regional Data Calendars 76

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