发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月土耳其玻璃行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：29
【目录或简介】：
Potential recovery in the glass sector is not fully priced in
Despite the weak earnings outlook in 2009, we see Sise Cam’s geographical
diversification, leading position in the markets in which it operates, and vertically
integrated structure as strengths and maintain our Buy ratings for Sise Cam and its
subsidiaries. We believe investors have not fully priced in the potential recovery in
the glass sector. We prefer Anadolu Cam and Trakya Cam to parent company Sise
Cam due to their higher upside potential.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
Anadolu Cam (ANACM.IS),TRY2.06 Buy
Trakya Cam (TRKCM.IS),TRY2.20 Buy
Companies featured
Anadolu Cam (ANACM.IS),TRY2.06 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.03 0.14 0.13
P/E (x) 65.8 15.0 15.6
EV/EBITA (x) 9.1 16.0 7.7
Sise Cam (SISE.IS),TRY1.91 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.14 0.13 0.19
P/E (x) 10.6 15.0 9.9
EV/EBITA (x) 5.3 10.4 5.9
Soda Sanayii (SODA.IS),TRY1.78 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.22 0.19 0.29
P/E (x) 4.2 9.3 6.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.1 6.2 5.5
Trakya Cam (TRKCM.IS),TRY2.20 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.21 0.06 0.15
P/E (x) 7.4 34.7 14.4
EV/EBITA (x) 6.4 28.8 12.0
Key changes (price target)
Anadolu Cam TRY2.70 TRY2.82 +4%
Trakya Cam TRY2.10 TRY2.81 +34%
Soda Sanayii TRY2.36 TRY2.37 +1%
Sise Cam TRY1.95 TRY2.33 19%
Global Markets Research Company
Anadolu Cam and Trakya Cam are the top picks in the glass sector
Anadolu Cam offers the highest upside potential (40%) in our glass sector
coverage. Anadolu Cam underperformed Trakya Cam in the past two months, and
we expect the company to close the gap after the 2009 financial results, which
will be announced on 8 April. We prefer Anadolu Cam in the short to medium term
over Trakya Cam given its recent underperformance, but we believe that the longterm
prospects of Trakya Cam are better than those of its sister companies. We
expect the recovery in the flat glass sector to be gradual in 2010 and think that it
will gain pace in 2011. Moreover, we expect Trakya Cam to reap the benefits from
its strategic partnership with Saint-Gobain in the medium to long term by
expanding into new markets such as the Middle East and CIS countries.
Sise Cam targets 30% volume growth in 2010
Sise Cam aims to increase production by 30% to 3.5m tons in 2010. Following
revisions, our current estimates imply 17% revenue growth in 2010. We believe
that the Sise Cam subsidiaries’ margins should improve in 2010 on higher capacity
utilisation and glass prices. We expect the recovery in 2010 to be more visible in
the flat glass (Trakya Cam) and glass packaging (Anadolu Cam) segments.
Sise Cam aims to grow abroad and reduce debt through divestitures
Sise Cam Chairman Ahmet Kirman announced that the company plans to invest
USD500m in 2010, including potential acquisitions in the region (Russia, Balkans
and CIS). We forecast USD250m in total capex for new capacity investments.
Kirman also mentioned that the company plans to divest the non-utilised real
estate owned by its glassware subsidiary Pasabahce Cam to crystallise hidden
value. Note that we attach USD60m to Pasabahce's 120-acre lot in Beykoz.
Reiterating Buy on Sise Cam and subs on 22-40% upside potential
We use a DCF analysis for Anadolu Cam, Soda Sanayii and Trakya Cam. We prefer
a SOTP approach to value Sise Cam, as the dynamics of each of its underlying
assets are different and require a separate valuation. We apply a 10%
conglomerate discount to Sise Cam’s target NAV to reach its target Mcap.
Following revisions to our earnings estimates and DCF assumptions, we revise
our target prices for glass companies. Downside risks: 1) a prolonged downturn in
the economy; 2) unexpected delays in capacity expansion; 3) glass prices declining
faster than the underlying cost curve due to lower demand and increased
competition from imports; 4) TRY depreciation, which would eat up companies’
bottom line due to their net short FX positions; and 5) the increasing cost of
funding capital-intensive glass investments. For company-specific risks, see pp.
12-16. This report changes price targets and/or estimates for several
companies under coverage. For a detailed listing of these changes, see
Figure 1.
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Forecasts and revisions..................................................................... 4
Consensus revision trends................................................................ 8
4Q09 results preview....................................................................... 10
Valuation .......................................................................................... 12
DCF assumptions....................................................................................................................12
Revision in price targets and EPS forecasts............................................................................12
Sise Cam: Price target raised by 19% to TRY2.33/share; Buy ................................................13
Trakya Cam: Price target raised 34% to TRY2.81/share; Buy..................................................14
Anadolu Cam: Price target raised 4% to TRY2.82/share; Buy.................................................15
Soda Sanayii: Price target raised 1% to TRY2.37/share; Buy ..................................................16
Share price performance................................................................. 17
Glass companies are once again at attractive trading levels...................................................17
Running the numbers...................................................................... 19
京公网安备 11010802022788号
