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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月俄罗斯债务研究报告
【作者】：荷兰国际集团
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：79
【目录或简介】：
Contents
Focus on selective credit trades 1
Reasons for being more neutral on RUB debt 6
Economic trends 13
Banking sector trends 16
Russian debt pipelines 19
Companies: Banks 21
AHML ......................................................................................................................22
Alfa-Bank.................................................................................................................23
Bank of Moscow......................................................................................................24
Gazprombank..........................................................................................................25
HCFB.......................................................................................................................26
MDM Bank...............................................................................................................27
Promsvyazbank.......................................................................................................28
Rosselkhozbank ......................................................................................................29
Russian Standard Bank...........................................................................................30
Sberbank .................................................................................................................31
TransCreditBank .....................................................................................................32
VTB Bank ................................................................................................................33
Companies: Corporate 35
Alliance Oil ..............................................................................................................36
Dixy .........................................................................................................................37
Evraz Group ............................................................................................................38
FSK (Federal Grid Co) ............................................................................................39
Gazprom..................................................................................................................40
Gazpromneft............................................................................................................41
Integra .....................................................................................................................42
Lukoil .......................................................................................................................43
Magnit......................................................................................................................44
Mechel.....................................................................................................................45
MMK........................................................................................................................46
Mosenergo ..............................................................................................................47
MTS.........................................................................................................................48
NLMK ......................................................................................................................49
OGK-5 .....................................................................................................................50
Raspadskaya...........................................................................................................51
RusHydro ................................................................................................................52
Russian Railways ....................................................................................................53
Severstal .................................................................................................................54
Sistema ...................................................................................................................55
TGK-1......................................................................................................................56
TMK.........................................................................................................................57
TNK-BP ...................................................................................................................58
Transneft .................................................................................................................59
Vimpelcom...............................................................................................................60
X5 Retail Group.......................................................................................................61
Appendix 1: Companies comparison 62
Appendix 2: Banks comparison 66
Appendix 3: ING target spreads 68
Appendix 4: Bonds description and pricing 70
Disclosures Appendix 76
Focus on selective credit trades
We doubt that beta trades in either RUB or FX-denominated Russian debt offer much
value at the moment. Instead we recommend focusing on selective credit trades.
Below we highlight investment opportunities that look the most attractive to us.
• In our view the credit quality of Alfa-Bank is somewhat better than is implied by the
bank’s credit ratings. In particular, we like Alfa-Bank’s good response to the
significantly weakened operating environment during the crisis, including its
conservative liquidity and provisioning policy, as well as its disciplined approach to
loan restructuring. We note the bank’s good capitalisation level, enhanced by
support from both shareholders and government. Importantly, this year we see the
opportunities for Alfa-Bank to show a significant improvement in risk costs on the
back of slower growth in problem assets. As a result, we see moderate upside in
the bank’s Eurobond, with Alfa’13 looking particularly attractive.
• We believe the RUB bonds of AHML retain potential to tighten their currently wide
spreads to local sovereign bonds and offer an interesting overall investing
opportunity into high-grade RUB debt. The economic crisis led to an increased
share of problem mortgages in AHML’s portfolio, but it also proved that strong and
timely government support to the firm remains in place. We expect future strong
state support for AHML, and note improvements in its stand-alone credit profile.
This is based on stabilisation in the agency’s problem assets and significantly
strengthened balance sheet and profits.
• We like the credit of Russia’s mid-tier oil producer, Alliance Oil, and consider its
Eurobonds as trading wide enough, including extra spread to similar rated EM
corporate credit. The aggressive growth strategy of Alliance Oil over the next three
years looks to be the key concern for its bondholders, though we expect this to be
well balanced by significant improvements in its EBITDA generation. Additional
comfort should come for the predominantly long-term nature of the company’s debt
profile.
• The credit quality of Bank of Moscow (BoM) seems to us to be mispriced by the
Eurobond market. We recommend both senior and subordinated notes of the bank,
which retain at least 100bp tightening potential, in our view. The credit profile of
BoM remains well underpinned by its systemic importance both for regional and
federal governments, ensuring strong support in a stress scenario and an
investment grade credit rating for the bank. We note significant improvements in
the operating efficiency of the bank in 2009 which fully offsets its still relatively tight
net interest margin. At the same time, BoM’s relatively low risk costs thus far may
indicate the potential for a slower recovery in bottom line profitability.
• The high-yielding local bonds of Dixy (the sixth largest grocery retailer in Russia)
look attractive to us. Any progress on short-term debt refinancing could be a trigger
for a credit upgrade for Dixy, in our view. Similarly, we would consider credit
positive the speed-up in the retailer’s revenue growth, assuming it is not affected at
the expense of much tighter operating margins. Both developments look quite likely
in the near-term. Additionally, Dixy may be considered as an attractive M&A target
for the leading retail players with currently a much stronger credit profile. We see
more than 100bp tightening potential in the bonds.
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