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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月英国货币研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：62
【目录或简介】：
UK Election Special – Polls apart (pg 3)
As the General Election looms there is an increasing focus on the possible outcomes and their potential
impact on sterling. With an election this close and important for financial markets, an understanding of
opinion polls is of the utmost importance. Here we take a detailed look at how opinion polls are
conducted and what they tell us. We conclude that in the first-past-the-post electoral system used in the
UK, opinion polls are often poor indicators of election results. We show that, despite the widespread view
that opinion polls point to a hung parliament, the betting markets are still pricing in a Conservative
majority, and a hung parliament is less likely than it may appear.
Dollar strength in Q1...again (pg 17)
The phenomenon of relative dollar strength in Q1 does seem to be genuine. We analyse the dollar’s
performance on a variety of measures over a number of time periods over the past 35 years and find the Q1
effect to be a persistent feature. Analysing non-seasonally adjusted current account data suggests that the trade
and current account deficits are, on average, smaller in Q1 than in the rest of the year. This seems to reflect
lower imports in Q1. The seasonal effect can be dominated by other forces driving the dollar, but it does give
additional support to our view that recent dollar strength will fade as the year progresses.
PBoC Governor on renminbi (pg 24)
The PBoC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told a press conference during the recent annual National People's
Congress (NPC) sessions that China has to adapt a "special" currency policy during some special periods,
such as during the global financial crisis. It is part of China's policy package to fight the crisis. Sooner or
later, China will have to withdraw its special stimulus policies. We still hold the view that the reminbi
will likely start to move away from the peg as early as 2Q. Yet the pace of appreciation will likely be
gradual. We expect USDCNY exchange rate at 6.50 at the end of this year.
SEK’s hawks soar (pg 26)
The Riksbank’s recent monetary policy statement stands out. The central bank suggested that the
tightening of monetary policy could now happen earlier than it previously thought. In contrast, other
central banks where there is a relatively sound fundamental story have recently sounded more cautious.
The SEK has underperformed relative to a number of other currencies but we see room to catch up.
A compelling case for a stronger MXN (pg 32)
We are adjusting our forecasts for the Mexican peso higher to 12.25/USD by year-end from 12.90/USD.
While MXN will remain beholden to global events, an improvement in risk appetite and evidence of
strong FX inflows should support a sustainable break higher for the peso in the coming months.
Dollar Bloc (pg 35)
Canada – All priced up with nowhere to go – We continue to view the CAD as near ‘fully’ valued and
expect the spot USD-CAD to drift modestly higher in the coming weeks. And while there are some
developments and conditions that could push the CAD higher temporarily, we would be sceptical that
such gains would be sustained for long.
Australia – Hawkish again – The RBA returned to their trend of monetary policy tightening this month
by hiking the policy rate 25bp to 4.0% on the 2nd March. We see further rate rises to come this year, and
with all the good new behind it, we remain bullish on the AUD.
New Zealand – Still lagging its neighbour – When compared to Australia, New Zealand’s recovery is
lagging behind significantly. However we could see the NZD play catch up towards the end of the year.
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