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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚太光伏行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：33
【目录或简介】：
Buy JA Solar, ReneSola and OCI. Take Profit on
Canadian Solar: Subsequent to our recent reports
highlighting structural improvements and strong demand
pull, we have revised shipment and ASP estimates for
companies under our coverage. Due to double positive
leverage from higher shipments as well as higher
margins, we expect ReneSola to be a key beneficiary.
JA Solar will continue to benefit due to strong shipments.
OCI remains compelling due to its low cost structure and
attractive valuation. At Canadian Solar, shipment
strength may be negated by lower margins due to higher
cost wafers and cells. After 35% stock price gain in the
past six weeks, we recommend taking profit.
What’s changed in demand outlook? Most of the
companies are likely to announce better-than-expected
shipments for Q1/ Q2’10 and sequential growth in Q2’10
as well as Q3’10. Three factors are driving improvement
in demand visibility. First, with a harsh winter (and snow)
behind us, pace of installations has picked up strongly.
Second, policy makers in Germany and Italy seem to be
moving slower than earlier expected to reduce FiT’s.
Third, there is demand pull in multiple markets. Now it
has become clear to the industry and consumers that
the magnitude of FiT’s will definitely be reduced – it’s
just a matter of when. Hence, there is rush to install
before a reduction in Germany in 2H’10 and Italy,
France, Spain, Czech Republic and Belgium in 1H’11.
Maximum Leverage at Wafer Makers: With longer
lead time for wafer capacity (6 months), we are
witnessing an increase in wafer ASP from a low of
$0.79/Wp in Q4’09 to $0.83/Wp currently (to our
surprise) and is likely to increase to $0.87-0.90 by end
Q2’10. Cell ASPs have also increased by a similar
amount to negate the impact of higher wafer costs.
Polysilicon prices have stabilized at $50-$55/Kg. Hence,
1H’10 profitability may be better than our expectations.
Macro Risks, watch valuations: We remind investors
not to ignore the potential risks from
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