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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月亚洲光伏行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：73
【目录或简介】：
Oversupply and falling ASPs make solar
more affordable; demand recovering;
installed base to double within 3 years
􀀗 Cost leadership is driving market share
gains for downstream Chinese players
􀀗 Being a core part of a low-cost supply
chain is critical for upstream players
Long-term story better with falling ASPs: The sector is
recovering from a sharp demand contraction following the
credit crisis and a policy shock in Spain last year. Module
ASPs have collapsed 50% y-o-y and are likely to drop by
another 20% by the end of 2010. Near term, this is not good
news for the industry but eventually this should help bridge
the gap with other energy sources and expand the market.
Meanwhile, the attraction of low ASPs is luring buyers back.
We expect shipments to rise at a CAGR of more than 30%
over the next three years after a relatively flat 2009.
Cost leaders from China are taking market share:
Polysilicon, the main raw material and the biggest cost
component in solar modules, has gone from severe shortage
to massive oversupply. Prices have crashed and silicon costs
are rapidly being replaced by non-silicon and manufacturing
costs as the main cost component. This environment helps
China’s module makers (Suntech, Yingli, Trina), which are
emerging as cost leaders and taking market share from
smaller players in developed markets.
Access to right customers is vital for upstream players:
As downstream winners take market share, higher cost
producers will consolidate, diversify or wind down. It’s
hardly surprising that the fate of upstream suppliers will be
determined by the success of their downstream customers.
Cost, quality and balance sheet strength will be key mantras
as downstream leaders get picky with their suppliers. GCL
appears to be well placed but not LDK or Motech.
Trina Solar is our top pick in Asia: As in our global
thematic Solar eclipsed, we prefer cost leaders. We initiate
coverage of Trina with an OW(V) for its superior earnings
growth and attractive valuation. We also initiate on GCL
with a N(V) as it has access to a low-cost supply chain, but
we believe the growth is priced in and consensus is too high.
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