2010年4月全球丙肝疫苗行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球丙肝疫苗行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：43
        【目录或简介】：
On Day 2 of HCV WEEK, our focus shifts to the HCV commercial opportunity.
To help frame the market and answer many of the key questions on investors’
minds (warehousing, treatment capacity, market share, dosing, etc.), we conducted
an in-depth survey of 50 high-prescribing physicians. The results support our
bullish view on the HCV market, and the large market potential of STAT-C
therapies. Initially, the key lever in treated patient growth will come from the
~380k treatment experienced genotype 1 patients, where physicians expect to treat
69% of these patients by year 3 of the telaprevir and boceprevir launches. Unlike
with the prior experience of the launch of pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN), the
increase in treated patients may be more sustainable as better treatment options
become available, including STAT-C combos. To discuss the HCV commercial
outlook and our initiations published today (VRUS and ITMN – both
Overweight rated), we are hosting a conf call with slides today at 10 am ET
(US: 888-889-1309 (US); 773-756-0161 (OUS); passcode: BIOTECH).
• Experienced patients the initial driver. We estimate there are ~380k
treatment experienced genotype 1 patients, most of whom are in need of therapy.
Our survey suggests that with the launch of telaprevir and boceprevir in 2011e,
34% of these patients will be treated in the first year, and 69% will be treated by
year 3. We estimate nearly 50% will be treated by year 4 as we normally apply a
discount to survey assumptions, but this suggests demand may be strong.
• Naïve patient growth should provide sustainability. Our survey suggests
naive genotype 1 patients treated will increase from ~40k currently to 50-55k by
2012. Hence, our modeled increase of treated patients from 80k now to ~135k
by 2012 will be largely driven by experienced patients. However, unlike the
launch of PEG-IFN in 2001 that led to a large influx of patients but then a steady
decline as warehousing diminished, the market growth this decade could have
more legs. This should be driven initially by experienced patients but then by
naive patients whose disease has progressed to the point of requiring therapy.
• Boceprevir could compete in the naïve setting. We were surprised that 38% of
physicians prefer boceprevir in the naive setting. It is important to note that this
is driven largely by higher SVR, which could be less of an issue for telaprevir if
it shows a better SVR than boceprevir in phase 3, as we expect. Nevertheless, it
still points to stiffer competition than many Vertex bulls expect and the legacy
share for PEG-Intron will be the starting point for Merck. In the experienced
setting, telaprevir is expected to dominate with an 84% share, as we expected.
• Safety and dosing key factors to consider. Physicians believe that moving
from TID to BID is important (84%), and that moving from BID to QD is also
important (78%). Additionally, physicians rank anemia as the most difficult side
effect (34%), but rash a close second (30%), with jaundice much less of a
concern (6%). This suggests competition from BI 201335 and TMC-435350
could be strong given QD dosing and jaundice as the primary safety concern.
• How we see the market evolving. Physicians are eager to remove PEG-IFN,
and would even sacrifice SVR to do so. We see this as the next frontier in HCV,
and given their profile we think nucs (minimal resistance, combinable, potential
QD) and NS5A inhibitors (potent, QD) could play meaningful roles long term.

Table of Contents
Shifting Gears to Commercial .................................................3
Survey Conclusions.................................................................4
The Commercial Perspective ..................................................6
Survey Background................................................................11
Patient Distribution ................................................................13
Treatment Capacity ................................................................14
Treatment Naïve Patients.......................................................16
Treatment Experienced Patients...........................................26
STAT-C Combo.......................................................................32
Cost .........................................................................................34
HCV Pipeline ...........................................................................36

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关键词：行业研究报告 疫苗行业 研究报告 行业研究 distribution commercial 研究报告 capacity 摩根大通 support

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