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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月韩国造船行业研究报告
【作者】：Mirae Asset
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：42
【目录或简介】：
The biggest wave ever
The shipping and shipbuilding industries will soon be swept by
a massive wave of change driven by greenhouse gas (GHG)
emission controls. All new ships will need to comply with
design and delivery stipulations of the new Energy Efficiency
Design Index (EEDI). Introduction of a carbon tax or trading
scheme for used vessels based on an Energy Efficiency
Operating Index (EEOI) is also being discussed. We sharply
upgrade target prices across our coverage as Korean yards
are best placed to benefit from the upcoming sea change in
the industry and restructuring sparked by these measures.
» GHG controls sending shockwaves across the industry
GHG controls on ships will bring the most sweeping changes to the
global shipping and shipbuilding industries as new policy measures are
expected to affect vessels of all types and ages. Regulations will lead to
actual reduction of ship supply and boost replacement demand.
» EEDI will act as an indicator of technological capabilities
All new ships contracted from 2013 onward will need to meet EEDI
requirements. The EEDI will soon emerge as a key indicator of
technological capabilities in the industry. Going forward, ship prices and
shipbuilders’ market shares will be determined by their fuel efficiency.
» EEOI & market-based measures to set off fuel efficiency wars
Shipping companies are required to report to the new Energy Efficiency
Operational Indicator (EEOI) from 2014, implying that shipping
companies, with their less fuel-efficient vessels, will likely suffer a
dramatic hike in costs. This could spark unbridled competition in fuel
efficiency among shipping companies which could lead to massive
global restructuring.
» Korean shipyards primed to benefit – TPs raised sharply
Korean shipyards will be primary beneficiaries of new regulations on
emissions as we believe they will effectively leverage their technology
advantage toward superior fuel efficiency and widen market shares
further. We expect the trend of new regulations to accelerate the rerating
of shipbuilders’ share prices. We are Overweight the sector and
maintain BUY ratings on our universe while raising target prices across
the board. Hyundai Heavy, Hyundai Mipo and DSME are our top picks.
Executive summary
GHG controls sending shockwaves across the industry
Greenhouse gas (GHG) controlling regulations on ships will send the largest-ever shockwaves
throughout the global shipping and shipbuilding industries. New regulations on GHG emissions
will apply to all vessels regardless of type and age. The implications of the new regulations are
summed up as 1) early scrapping of aged vessels; 2) growing demand for new ships due to
slow steaming; and 3) intensifying technology competition among shipbuilders.
EEDI, a new indicator of shipbuilders’ technological capability
Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) is an indicator of fuel efficiency for ships and will be the
most important indicator of shipbuilders’ technological competitiveness. Going forward, ships
that fail to meet EEDI requirements will not be delivered. We believe the shift in the shipbuilding
industry’s competitive focus from cost reduction to technological capability has already begun.
EEOI and market-based measures to set off fuel efficiency wars
Shipping companies are required to report Energy Efficiency Operating Index (EEOI) from 2014.
The IMO aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 50-70% in the long term. To this end, it plans to
introduce market based measures like Emission Trading System (ETS) and the GHG fund. Both
measures are incentive schemes based on relative valuation, designed to generate high fuel
efficiency competition among shipping companies.
The fuel efficiency wars are also sweeping through the shipbuilding industry. While standards
set by international agencies provide just the minimum guidelines, shipbuilders will need to
strive to achieve visibly better results to stay ahead. Some stricter standards are raising the bar
for new entrants to the shipbuilding industry while simultaneously squeezing operationally
inefficient companies out of the market.
Shipbuilders and ship owners will be forced to engage in relentless competition, even to the
extent of striving for a 1% in fuel efficiency improvement. Rising oil prices should also
accelerate the advent of the fuel efficiency wars. With the overall direction for the industry
becomes apparent, we believe the actual implementation dates or details of policy regulations
have limited meaning at this point.
Korean shipyards primed to benefit – TPs raised sharply
An increasing trend of GHG control-based regulations is swelling the wave of change in the
shipbuilding industry, which we believe will ultimately improve market conditions. Of their
regional peers, we expect the Korean shipbuilders to enjoy the most favorable business
environment uplift from such regulatory changes which plays to their technological strengths
and are expected to limit competition by weeding out weaker players and raising entry barriers.
Expecting these industry developments to establish new evaluation criteria for domestic
shipbuilders, we significantly raise target prices across the board for our Korean shipbuilding
universe. Our top picks for the shipbuilding sector are Hyundai Heavy Industries (target price
raised to W540,000), Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (target price raised to W360,000) and DSME
(target price raised to W53,000).
C O N T E N T S
The biggest wave ever ...................................................................................1
Executive summary........................................................................................2
GHG controls sending shockwaves across the industry 2
EEDI, a new indicator of shipbuilders’ technological capability 2
EEOI and market-based measures to set off fuel efficiency wars 2
Korean shipyards primed to benefit – TPs raised sharply 2
GHG controls sending shockwaves across the industry ................................4
Palpable moves toward greenhouse gas control 4
Efforts on new regulations are moving ahead fast 5
Implications and impacts of new regulations 6
GHG emissions regulations are an irreversible trend 7
EEDI, a key indicator of shipbuilding technologies .......................................8
How the Energy Efficiency Design Index or EEDI works 8
EEDI will determine the ranking of shipbuilders 10
Entry barriers into the industry will be raised 11
What shipbuilders need to survive 11
EEOI and market-based measures to set off fuel efficiency wars...............12
Economic benefits from GHG control 12
EEOI could become an indicator of fuel efficiency for ships 13
Market based measures – relative evaluation system is the answer 14
Endless competition will be accelerated by the rising oil price 15
Widening price gap among used vessels 16
Everybody will move once overall sector direction is set 16
Korean shipyards primed to benefit.............................................................16
New, improved business environment for Korean yards 16
Top tier shipbuilders will outperform shippers 17
Korean shipbuilders can leverage their technological edge 17
Target prices raised across the board; Buy ratings maintained 17
Hyundai Heavy (009540 KS): Simply the best............................................................. 19
Hyundai Mipo (010620 KS): Greatest beneficiary of sea change within the industry......... 23
DSME (042660 KS): M&A will be a key catalyst............................................................. 27
Samsung Heavy (010140 KS): First yard to commit to going green ............................... 31
Hanjin Heavy (097230 KS): 70% below scrap value .................................................... 35
Analyst profile ..............................................................................................39
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