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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月韩国造船行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：48
【目录或简介】：
Recent sector rally lacks fundamental support: Historically, share prices
of Korean shipbuilding companies have reacted strongly to global backlog
build momentum. Deliveries are likely to exceed new orders in 2010-11.
Hence, we expect continued global backlog erosion through 2011 and
believe that fundamental support for the recent rally is weak. Supply
pressure in the shipping industry remains high, which should act as a barrier
to the cyclical turnaround for shipbuilders in 2010. Our survey suggests that
the top-three Korean shipyards are bracing for this event, as their 2010 new
order targets are below the projected 2010 revenues, implying Korean
backlog erosion.
■
Rotational buying has its limits: Portfolio re-weighting by investors
triggered a powerful short-term outperformance in recent weeks, in our view.
Without fundamental catalysts to sustain the momentum, the rally is likely to
be unsustainable in the next six months from current levels.
■
We suggest profit taking at current levels: We would not look to hit a
home run in the sector this year, but we believe effective range-bound
trading can provide solid base hits, meaning sustainable outperformance is
not warranted by fundamentals at above current share price levels. We
suggest investors take profit in the sector at current price levels. We
maintain our UNDERPERFORM ratings on Samsung Heavy and Hyundai
Heavy, and NEUTRAL ratings on DSME and Hyundai Mipo.
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