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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月南美固定收益市场研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
While we still believe EM EXD could
trade lower in terms of yields driven by
the ‘wall of money,’ fiscal worries in
Europe could remain a source of
volatility in the short term
Valuations and our view on monetary
policy keep us mostly on the sidelines
in the front end of the local markets,
while maintaining carry trades at the
long end
We still see value in Latam FX, especially
for BRL, PEN, and COP 3-month NDF
The drivers behind worldwide appetite for risk remain
intact, continuing to lift emerging-market assets. Valuations
of emerging-market assets are becoming tighter, but seem
likely to get stretched even more in the medium term.
Inflows to dedicated emerging-markets bond funds have
been accelerating significantly since early March 2010,
mostly to the local markets. The recovery of the EM
economies remains unabated, as shown by the HSBC
Emerging Markets Index (EMI), which rose from 56.3 in the
final quarter of last year to 57.4 in the first quarter of 2010.
The unresolved issue of Greece’s fiscal woes appears
likely to remain a source of volatility in the short term.
We believe there are risks that the market will continue to
test the resolution and ability of the euro zone to come to the
rescue of one of its members. This can become an important
headwind to EM EXD.
Two distinctive dynamics are affecting the Latin
American local markets. In the short end, curves continue
to dance to the tune of the timing of the removal of monetary
stimuli; we see few opportunities there at this point. In the
long end, yields are likely to continue to come in on the back
of flows to EM local markets funds, high carry, and index
inclusion (Mexico).
Latam FX appears likely to maintain appreciation bias
backed by improving domestic and external fundamentals.
Risk-related refrainments offer good opportunities to build long
positions, especially in BRL, COP, and PEN out 3 months.
Disregard the Greek sirens
calling 3
Box 1: HSBC EMI: output rose at fastest pace since Q4'07 5
Box 2: Argentina: The coming debt swap 7
Box 3: Peru: Upgrading growth forecasts 13
Summary of views 14
Inflation pressure model 15
The pulse of the market 16
Trade ideas 17
Latin America Surprise
Indices 18
Central Bank Watcher 19
Latam recent publications 20
Country overviews 21
Argentina 22
Brazil 23
Chile 24
Colombia 25
Mexico 26
Panama 27
Peru 28
Uruguay 29
Venezuela 30
Central America 31
Charts and tables
Local markets 32
Inflation linkers and break-evens 33
External debt 35
External debt yield curves 37
External debt bonds, CDS, and basis 38
FX forecast and NDF 40
Forward/NDF-implied yield curves 41
Disclosure appendix 42
Disclaimer 43
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