发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚洲地产行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：26
【目录或简介】：
Housing affordability in Asia is fine: traditional measures of
affordability such as price/income or monthly mortgage burden of Asian
housing may appear either alarming or unduly reliant on low interest
rates to remain comfortable. A more sanguine view on housing
affordability appears, however, if other material factors are taken into
account, such as significant income disparities between the median
household (whose income levels are especially in emerging economies
well below the typical home-buying/owning household) and advances in
housing finance in many emerging economies. Housing stock value to
nominal GDP calculations also show little signs of a bubble in China's
housing market.
• Housing as an asset class - better than gold: Countries with large
accumulated savings bases and few inflation-protected investment
alternatives as repositories for rapidly growing household wealth may
put a premium valuation on housing as an asset class. Rapid
urbanization and greater population mobility in emerging economies
provide structural foundations for demand in emerging housing markets.
• Low levels of speculative activity detected in Asian housing markets:
Some proponents of “the great Asian property bubble theory” assert that
the price gains are unsustainable and a hard landing is due, if not now,
then sometime in the future. Whilst we ourselves have little hard
evidence to refute this bearish assertion, the analysis in this report shows
little sign of short-term speculative activity in Asia that would be
associated with an unsustainable bubble.
• Asian homebuilder stocks labor under a policy overhang that may
only be removed once the policy-makers are convinced the economic
recovery is entrenched and household income growth has been restored.
We are positive on the medium-term outlook for the sector though on the
back of robust underlying fundamentals, and will look for signs of
moderation in the policy-makers' stance on the housing sector in the
region to re-enter the sector. In Asia, our preferred real estate stocks are
Hong Kong, Philippines and Indonesian developers.
京公网安备 11010802022788号
