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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球重卡行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：50
【目录或简介】：
Where Are We Truckin'?
The global commercial vehicle market continues to evolve to a changing
global economy. As we exit the worst downturn in industry history, we
address the major themes (vertical integration, consolidation and developing
market expansion) that are likely to shape the next cycle. We also address our
outlook on the global markets and the trajectory of the recovery.
■
Global Markets Represent Next Opportunity for Western OEMs? Brazil
remains the biggest opportunity in the near-term for traditional market players
given the strong economy and a potential pre-buy ahead of a double-step (Euro
III to Euro V) in emission standards in 2012. MAN is the best positioned truck OE
in Brazil with the leading market share (30%) and 30% of ‘10E profits generated
from the region. CMI benefits on the engine side (supplies MAN w/ 50% of its
engines). China and India, which now represent ~50% of the global H/D market,
represent L/T opportunities and remain under-penetrated by the western OEMs.
While traditional market players will look to tap into these high growth markets to
remain relevant, unfavorable competitive dynamics (particularly in China) and
lower returns on capital will likely make it a slow process, in our view.
■
Trajectory of Volume Recovery Remains Paramount in Near Term: We
assume N. America leads the recovery and estimate growth of 15% in ‘10 and
35% in ‘11. While our assumptions are reflective of an average recovery, the
record fleet age and low-base of the industry means our estimates could prove to
be conservative. For Europe, we take a conservative stance and assume the
market is up 5% in 2010 and 20% in 2011. While Europe should lag the U.S., we
think expectations remain low and as such, could be ripe for an upside surprise.
■
Consolidation a European Play: While we remain unconvinced that trucks
consolidation and the highlighted synergies justify the risk of integrating two
strong standalone players, we believe consolidation will take place sooner rather
than later. We thus upgrade MAN to Outperform from Underperform as we
believe MAN will likely be the target (not the bidder) in any VW/Scania/MAN deal.
■
Going Euro-style: PCAR Embraces Vertical Integration: Vertical integration
for PCAR should drive higher peak margins next cycle reflecting greater
aftermarket penetration. We think PCAR’s higher-profit parts business trends
towards 20% of revs (vs. 12-15% avg.) and the operating margin gap between
Scania and PCAR (~200bps at the peak) closes towards parity.
■
Top picks: Of the traditional truck OEMs, we highlight Daimler and MAN as our
top picks reflecting strong global brands and attractive valuations. In the U.S., we
highlight CMI as our top pick reflecting exposure to developing markets and
secular growth opportunities in Components. In India, we like Ashok Leyland as
a pure-play on the CV market and also highlight Tata as the company maintains
the leading market share in the heavy and medium-duty markets.
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