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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国金属与矿产行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：93
【目录或简介】：
Circling the wagons: strongly favor "defensive" bulks
Our compendium features 1Q10 previews, recent strong bulk price settlements
and latest company guidance. On rising risk of China tightening, we highlight our
strong preference for bulk-commodity exposed names, such as Cliffs, Vale and
Thompson Creek. We are shifting to a more cautious stance on base-exposed
names, having downgraded Alcoa and GMexico to Hold since our last quarterly
update, and downgrade Freeport to Hold in this piece on lack of near-term
catalysts. Newmont remains preferred "value" name in gold.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Recommendation Change
Top picks
Cliffs (CLF.N),USD74.83 Buy
Newmont Mining (NEM.N),USD54.21 Buy
Thompson Creek (TC.N),USD13.99 Buy
Vale (VALE.N),USD33.95 Buy
Companies featured
Alcoa (AA.N),USD14.39 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -1.28 0.64 1.51
P/E (x) – 22.6 9.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 34.1 9.5 6.1
Barrick Gold (ABX.N),USD41.29 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -4.87 2.55 2.92
P/E (x) – 16.2 14.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.5 8.4 7.2
Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE.N),USD17.44 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -0.29 0.85 1.84
P/E (x) – 20.5 9.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 21.8 6.3 3.9
Cliffs (CLF.N),USD74.83 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.56 7.67 9.95
P/E (x) 18.1 9.8 7.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.3 5.5 4.1
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.N),USD85.67 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 5.72 6.94 9.45
P/E (x) 9.6 12.3 9.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.1 5.5 4.1
Goldcorp (GG.N),USD40.19 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 0.32 1.25 1.67
P/E (x) 109.3 32.1 24.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.9 15.7 12.5
Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB.MX),MXN35.32 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 0.11 0.22 0.38
P/E (x) 11.5 13.2 7.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.4 6.1 3.8
Kinross Gold (KGC.N),USD18.55 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 0.45 0.81 1.07
P/E (x) 41.8 22.9 17.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.5 8.2 6.5
Newmont Mining (NEM.N),USD54.21 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.65 3.78 4.82
P/E (x) 16.4 14.3 11.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.9 5.0 4.0
Southern Copper (SCCO.N),USD34.89 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.09 1.95 3.47
P/E (x) 22.1 17.9 10.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.6 9.7 6.0
Silver Standard (SSO.TO),CAD19.53 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -0.17 -0.26 0.85
P/E (x) – – 22.9
EV/EBITDA (x) – 68.2 10.9
Thompson Creek (TC.N),USD13.99 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 0.41 1.11 2.34
P/E (x) 22.3 12.6 6.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.9 6.5 3.0
Vale (VALE.N),USD33.95 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 2.64 1.01 2.26
P/E (x) 10.3 33.5 15.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.6 21.6 9.8
Global Markets Research Company
Cautious outlook for base metals on risk of Chinese tightening measures
For iron ore, the move to new quarterly pricing and settlements topping +90%
YoY by Vale last week should benefit bulk-commodity exposed producers in our
coverage. For major base metals DB has kept price projections mainly unchanged
and maintains a cautious outlook with the possible downside risk in the Chinese
economy on further tightening measures aimed at cooling overheated property
market, with copper, particularly at risk of near-term pull-back. While, aluminum
remains our most favored “relative” base metal with continued financial
participation, we have cut Alcoa to a Hold on diminishing leverage to aluminum
prices due to rising near-term one-off charges. We believe gold prices will
continue to struggle reflecting ongoing strength in the US dollar and the absence
of inflows into ETFs, at least until the tightening cycle begins and favor
inexpensively valued Newmont against this backdrop.
We continue to prefer exposure in bulk commodities
Cliffs remains a top pick and remains perfectly positioned in iron ore and coking
coal which are seeing the strongest performance in 2010 based on recovering
demand from China and higher contract settlements. For Vale, its ferrous division
should benefit from recent iron ore contract price settlements at +90% YoY and its
non-ferrous division, from a recent spike in nickel prices. China’s increasing import
reliance for molybdenum bodes well for Thompson Creek.
Price targets and earnings estimates are being impacted by rising costs
Most of our price targets continue to be based on a price-to-earnings based metric
on improved earnings visibility and recovered commodity prices but we are noting
an undertone of “cost inflation” beginning to limit further earnings upside for
base-exposed producers. On average, we are now basing our price targets for our
coverage at ~13x 2011E EPS (~10x for base/bulk equities and ~15x for precious
metals). On higher base/bulks metals prices offset by higher unit costs, our overall
revised earnings estimates are slightly higher versus our prior estimates and as a
result, PT for our coverage remains mainly unchanged.
Financial risk and valuation wrap
We cannot rule out the risk of further capital raises (or asset sales) given a few still
tight balance sheets in our coverage (ie, Alcoa, Coeur d’Alene, Silver Standard (has
raised equity 3x). Based on revised earnings, our sector is trading at a P/E ratio of
12.7x 2011 earnings, and EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.1x estimates in line with historical
forward averages for the group. As part of this compendium report and within
the past quarter we have made numerous Price Target and ratings revisions.
For detailed changes see page 5 figure 2.
Table of Contents*
Executive summary ........................................................................... 4
Commodity revision summary ....................................................... 14
Alcoa – EPS leverage slows ............................................................ 33
Barrick Gold – steady as she goes ................................................. 38
Cliffs – bulks leverage ..................................................................... 42
Coeur d’Alene Mines – Kensington start-up advanced................ 48
Freeport-McMoRan – shift to neutral as copper main driver ...... 52
Goldcorp – no longer the new kid on the block............................ 56
Grupo Mexico - discount has narrowed ........................................ 60
Kinross Gold - growth at a reasonable multiple ........................... 63
Newmont Mining – cash flow harvest ahead................................ 67
Silver Standard – waiting for Pirquitas ......................................... 71
Southern Copper – back on track................................................... 75
Thompson Creek – playing on moly leverage ............................... 79
Vale – continental drift.................................................................... 83
Recent publications......................................................................... 87
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