【出版时间及名称】:2010年4月日本电子行业研究报告
【作者】:瑞士信贷
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:91
【目录或简介】:
Summary: In this report, we analyze MFC (multifunction copiers), LBP
(laser beam printers; single-function LBP) and MFP (multifunction printers;
multifunction LBP) data on a worldwide (WW), US and western Europe (WE)
basis. We present volume share trends by region and product speed, and
provide data on product mix and ASP for major firms over 2008-09.
■ MFC: Color MFC WW shipments totaled 303,000 units in Oct-Dec to swing
to positive growth – albeit only slightly, at +0.4% – from -9% in Jul-Sep. We
believe this trend adds support to our forecast that WW shipments will rise
12% in 2010. Ricoh (7752, NEUTRAL, TP ¥1,400) continued to command
the largest WW share, but the boost from its IKON acquisition is wearing off
and the gap between Ricoh and its next rival in terms of WW share is
shrinking. For high-speed equipment with speeds of 45ppm-plus, Ricoh
overtook Konica Minolta Holdings (KMH; 4902, OUTPERFORM, TP ¥1,150)
as No. 1 for market share following its IKON acquisition, but the four major
firms, which also include Xerox (XRX) and Canon (7751, NEUTRAL, TP
¥3,900), hold roughly the same share in Oct-Dec. Nevertheless, since KMH
still possesses the highest share for machines in field (MIF), it should benefit
the most from a rise in print volume accompanying an economic recovery.
Black/white (B/W) shipments, on the other hand, continue to post negative
growth.
■ LBP/MFP: WW color LBP + MFP shipments for Oct-Dec rose slightly to
1.34mn units (+0.6%, Jul-Sep -11%) to recapture positive growth. By region,
US shipments recovered to 6% growth (-20% in Jul-Sep), whereas WE
shipments further deteriorated to -8% (-1%). WW shipments for B/W LBP +
MFP rose 7% to 6.74mn units (-23% in Jul-Sep). The speedy recovery for
both color and B/W MFP likely reflects a notable shift from LBP to MFP and
from low-end MFC to MFP, particularly in newly emerging countries.
■ Stock calls: An office equipment recovery trend is clearly emerging, and the
recent recovery for color MFC in particular should boost firms’ profitability
through an improving product mix. KMH, in particular, is seeing a marked
improvement through cutting fixed-costs and enhancing its product mix
through the launch of new color products. Moreover, if print volume shows
signs of recovery over the medium term, KMH should benefit from its top
market share for high-speed MIF. Canon should benefit from the LBP + MFP
recovery, but this is already the consensus outlook. Moreover, based on the
historical shipment cycle of roughly five years, we note that shipments could
enter an adjustment from 2H 2010.
Table of contents
Office equipment data overview 3
Volume trends globally, in US and WE 3
Multi function copiers 6
Color MFC data 6
B/W MFC data 17
Regional trend details 28
Our product-mix analysis 37
MIF trends 39
Estimating MIF mix 39
Laser beam printers 44
LBP market trends: risks in 2H FY3/11? 44
Color LBP data 48
B/W LBP data 51
Multi function LBPs (MFP) 56
Color MFP data 56
B/W MFP data 61
LBP + MFP market trends 66
Product mix 69
MFC 69
LBP and MFP 77