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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲电力行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：80
【目录或简介】：
With no significant recovery in wholesale electricity prices in sight, we find it
hard to get positive on European utilities. However, we believe that
regulators/politicians in some European countries are likely to be
increasingly concerned about the risks to security of supply arising from a
combination of a lack of incentive to build conventional capacity and the
growing contribution of intermittent renewable energies. We expect the
regulatory debate to dominate the news flow in the sector at least for the rest
of the year. The status quo is very different across the UK and the Continent
and hence the reaction of policy makers should also be different, creating
selective investment opportunities in the European utilities sector.
• Pressure on the regulator is more urgent in the UK, where we believe
40% of existing capacity will need to be replaced in the next 10 years. We
expect the UK government to encourage low carbon generation, to
improve energy efficiency and to provide a more certain return for nuclear
investment. We see Centrica as best placed in such environment, while
SSE faces tough challenges due to its coal exposure and its leverage. Drax
is set to suffer the most in our view.
• The different consequences of potential decisions on nuclear make us
reiterate our preference for EDF versus E.ON and RWE. In Germany,
an extension of useful lives of nuclear plants is widely expected, while we
are concerned about the implications this could have for the outlook for
German power prices. Meanwhile, liberalization in France should allow
EDF to benefit from a sizeable increase in realized power prices so that it
can invest in extending the life of existing plants and in new nuclear
plants. We also see GDF Suez as a winner from electricity liberalization
and improved visibility in gas regulation in France. We are introducing
end-10 PTs for EDF (
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