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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月土耳其Reits行业研究报告
【作者】：EFT Istanbul证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
25% outperformance vs. the Index -- The REIT Index
has gained 180% in value since our sector rating upgrade
(Report title: “Déjà Vu”) dated Feb’09, beating the benchmark
index by 25%. We had claimed at the time that although the
weakness in the real estate market was likely to persist in
2009, the stock prices of the REITs on average continued to
offer attractive yields. We had thus upgraded our sector rating
to “Attractive”, noting that despite the short term risks
surrounding global financial markets, it was time to
accumulate positions in real estate investment trusts.
In 2009, against a backdrop of dwindling economic activity, the construction sector shrank by 16%, while real
interest rates came down by c.6pp to 1.6% levels, on the back of the aggressive rate cut cycle launched by the
CBT. Market sentiment gradually ameliorated in 2009, after the pricing in of a doomsday scenario a year ago, as
pessimistic expectations turned out unfounded for the listed REITs. Accordingly, REIT stocks rallied, while the
net yield on REIT shares dropped by c.18pp to c.7.5% in this period.
􀂃 Downgrading to NEUTRAL -- Though REIT valuations may not be deemed demanding at the time being, they
are no longer as compelling as they were a year ago. Moreover, the expected rise in real rates back to the long
term 4-5% range is likely to limit the upside for REIT shares. We downgrade our sector rating from “Attractive”
to NEUTRAL, considering the following factors:
1) Net yield on REIT shares no longer as appealing -- Despite the substantial decrease in real rates, the
spread between the real interest rate and the net yield offered by REIT stocks has narrowed from c.18%
since our last report to 6% currently. This level is on a par with the historic average, thanks to the overall
re-rating of REITs, which have outperformed the ISE-100 by 25%.
2) End of the easing cycle likely to dampen sentiment -- We expect the CBT to launch the tightening
cycle in 3Q10 and go for gradual hikes to the tune of 200-250bp within a 4-to-6-month time frame. Though
expectations of future rate hikes could trigger mortgage demand in the short term, demand as well as
property valuations are expected to be hampered in the medium term. Therefore, the expected increase in
real rates towards the end of the year is likely to put downward pressure on REIT valuations.
3) Sector discount to NAV converging to historic averages -- The aggregate sector discount to current
NAV has decreased from 71% since our sector rating upgrade to 18% as of now, compared to 26% historic
average. As of YE09, the sector’s aggregate NAV has reached TRL4.4bn, up by a mere 3% yoy. Rental
yields based on property valuations stand at 7.0% on average for the sector, which is unchanged yoy.
4) IPOs to bring in new supply – A multitude of REITs are preparing to go public in 2H10-1H11, with an
expected size of US$100-200mn, which could cast an overhang on existing shares.
􀂃 Among the REIT stocks in our coverage, we downgrade our L/T rating on Is REIT from BUY to
HOLD, on the back of the diminished upside potential. On the other hand, we maintain our HOLD
ratings for Alarko REIT and Sinpas REIT, which we had recently downgraded. Meanwhile, we
initiate coverage of five small cap/illiquid names. We conclude that the small cap stocks are
priced fairly, with the exception of Atakule REIT, where an operational overhaul by the new
management promises to be value accretive.
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