Finding Funding
Frasers
One of the differentiating factor for Reits going forward is
access to funding and cost of new funds. In the current
constrained market environment, availability of credit is lower and
cost substantially higher at renewal. This would mean that growth
prospects for higher geared reits will be adversely impacted,
particularly those with a greater proportion of debt coming up for
renewal in the next 9-12 months. Hence, Reits with stronger
balance sheet and less reliance on debt are likely to outperform its
peers. Our analysis whow that a 50bps increase in average interest
cost would erode DPU and yield by 1-15%.
Near term Hong Kong should hold up better relative to
Singapore. We expect more capital raisings to occur in conjunction
with debt renewal as Sreits deleverage. This could lead to a period
of digestion for these new issuances in the short term. HK reits are
expected to be resilient given that only 6% and 19% of total debt
needs to be renewed in 2009-2010, amounting to HK$2.7b and
HK$8b respectively. We expect newsflow on refinancing to pick up
pace only from the latter part of 2010, as investors focus on the
sizeable HK$18.7b coming up for refinancing in 2011, particularly
when asset deflation prospects add stress to balance sheet. Share
prices of Mreits and Thai PFPOs are likely to remain relatively stable,
depending on organic drivers to grow.
Prefer retail over office reits. Across the region, we continue to
like the retail sector over the office segment. While we anticipate
rental and capital values in both to decline, we see retail as less risky
and expected a smaller 10-20% dip in rents vs a 45-50% drop in
office rents. This is in line with historical performance. Our top buy
in the segment include Link Reit, Fortune Reit, Frasers Centrepoint
Trust (FCT) and CPN Retail Property Fund (CPNRF). Link Reit offers
investors an absolute return of 29% backed by a resilient portfolio
with the added potential from AEI. FCT is a pure suburban retail
reit with captive shopper traffic and caters more towards necessity
shopping. CPNRF is the largest Treit with a resilient revenue profile,
backed by a strong sponsor and asset pipeline in Central Pattana,
which is a major retail landlord in Thailand. We also like industrial
player A-Reit in Singapore for its long lease expiry profile of 5.6
years and Parkway Life Reit for its’base plus’ revenue model that
ensures topline growth going forward.
Table of Contents
Regional REIT sectors: A snapshot 3
Relative Performance
13
REIT Valuation Screen 14
REITs Performance Tracker
- Singapore 16
- Hong Kong 26
- Thailand 34
- Malaysia 42
Corporate Profiles
-
Ascendas India Trust
Ascendas REIT
Ascott Residence Trust
CapitaCommercial Trust
CapitaRetail China Trust
CDL Hospitality Trust
Frasers Centerpoint Trust
K-REIT Asia
MapleTree Logistics Trust
Parkway Life REIT
Starhill Global REIT
Suntec REIT
- Hong Kong
Champion REIT
Fortune REIT
Link REIT
Prosperity REIT
CPN Retail Growth Property Fund
Samui Airport Property Fund
Axis REIT
Appendix
REIT News
Property News Snippets
Regional REIT Guidelines
Regional Yield Comparisons
Singapore 51
52
12
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
70
72
74
76
79
80
82
68
84
86
- Thailand 89
90
- Malaysia 95
96
98
100
92
104
[此贴子已经被作者于2009-3-3 0:05:30编辑过]