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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球CROCI指数研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：56
【目录或简介】：
The increasing role of economic recovery
Even with the MSCI World at an 18 month high, we are not unduly
concerned about valuation of equities. At 5.35%, the market implied
COC still offers a total real return just below the long-term fair value
level of 5.4%. A further fall in the COC to 5.15%, the average in both
2004 and 2008, would give investors another 12% upside and push
Equities to 1373 (last close 1226) towards the top our estimated
range (1075 – 1379) for 2010. Our YE target is unchanged at 1308.
However, the percentage of ‘Good Value’ stocks in our universe (i.e.
those with upside of at least 25% on LT assumptions with the current
COC) is at its lowest level in 5 years; thus, further gains will be a
function of positive economic momentum. There is an unequivocal
relationship, in our opinion, between the dynamics of risk aversion
and the economy; risk aversion rises during a slowdown and falls in a
recovery. We expect the economic recovery to drive up both earnings
and investor confidence.
This will do little to comfort the most committed value investors. That
said, Japan, Health Care, Software & Services, Financials (which
offers a total real return of 7.26%) and selectively Telecoms, Energy,
Household & Personal Products are still attractive on valuation,
although earnings momentum is not always supportive. On the other
hand, Materials is now trading at a premium to the average EV/NCI of
the past 5 years and is expensive on long-term assumptions, although
it has strong earnings momentum; a better alternative is IT, which
generates high FCF and has even better revisions.
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