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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月CROCI指数专题研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：54
【目录或简介】：
US Recovery and Risk Aversion
Equities are becoming more bullish about the economic recovery in
the US versus the rest of the world. This is evident from the fact
that stock-selection factors which favour cyclical companies have
performed very well in the US recently, a pattern not seen
elsewhere (pages 6-7). In the meantime, changes in risk aversion (ie
the Cost of Capital) have continued to be the predominant driver of
the market. We believe that this will continue to be the case for the
rest of the year. Our target for MSCI World is unchanged at 1308
(close 1187) with a range of 1075 and 1379.
We take advantage of the current sweet spot in equities to revisit
two themes: Japan versus the other regions and the positioning of
Energy and Utilities.
There have been significant changes in the CROCI® Values category
in the past month notwithstanding a lower cost of capital; however,
we still find good value across regions and sectors. Kingfisher and
Newell have been restructuring for some time but investors are still
doubtful about the sustainability of the current returns. Avon and
Google are two capital growth stories but, against historical
evidence, investors are skeptical that this will actually yield higher
real earnings. For Nokia and Intel, two fallen angels of the Tech
space, markets are pricing a structural fall in profits. Investors
interested in Utilities should look at how cheap Bristol Myers,
KDDI and Novartis are by comparison. Among the Cyclicals, we
still find good value in MEI, China Comm Construction and
Hyundai Heavy Industries.
Contents Definitions
March Highlights Page 3
Japan CROCI Page 4
Market Overview Page 5
Factor Returns Page 6
Contrarian View Page 8
Sector Views Page 10
Sector Views – Energy &
Utilities Focus
Page 12
Sector Views – Regional Focus Page 13
Sector Rankings Page 14
Sectors ranked within region according to CROCI
Values. Best /worst value stocks within sectors.
Stock Highlights Page 18
Summary of main themes from the best and worst
value stocks on pages 32 to 41 and introduction to
highlighted stocks on pages 18 to 30.
Stock Value Grids Page 32
Best and worst value stocks by region plus CSA
flags and consensus earnings estimate revisions.
Stock A to Z Page 42
Appendix A Page 51
Explanation of CROCI and CSA
Appendix 1 Page 52
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