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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国资产管理行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：54
【目录或简介】：
The Monthly Fund Factor
Equity inflows accelerate, but
fixed income still dominates
Michael Carrier, CFA
Research Analyst
(+1) 212 250-6600
michael.carrier@db.com
Noah Gunn
Research Associate
(+1) 212 250-7970
noah.gunn@db.com
Equity inflows accelerate and fixed income flows remain healthy in March
The monthly mutual fund data was released, and given upward trending
markets/401k seasonality, long term (LT) flows accelerated in March, driven by
accelerating equity inflows and still healthy fixed income flows, while money mkt
outflows surged. BLK, TROW, & BEN had standout LT inflows in the month.
Trends for the asset managers are mostly favorable, and despite the recent
run/valuations, we continue to see opportunities in the sector, but remain
selective. Our top picks are IVZ & TROW (both Buy Rated).
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Periodical
Companies featured
Artio Global Investors (ART.N),USD24.23 Hold
Franklin Resources (BEN.N),USD121.31 Hold
BlackRock (BLK.N),USD211.38 Hold
Cohen & Steers (CNS.N),USD28.60 Hold
Federated Investors (FII.N),USD26.95 Hold
Invesco (IVZ.N),USD22.66 Buy
Janus Capital (JNS.N),USD15.45 Hold
Legg Mason (LM.N),USD33.44 Hold
T. Rowe Price (TROW.OQ),USD58.48 Buy
Global Markets Research Company
Industry takeaways for the month
1) Total mutual fund flows in March were -$79.1B (9% ann. org decay), driven by
significant money market outflows offsetting higher long-term inflows (still healthy
fixed income inflows were complemented by accelerating equity inflows); 2)
Equity inflows rose to $31.4B (7% ann. org growth), their highest monthly total in
over 2 years); 3) Fixed income inflows were healthy at $40.0B (21% ann. org
growth); & 4) Money market outflows doubled to $150.5B (59% ann. org decay).
While long-term flows will remain closely linked to the markets, we expect LT
flows to be healthy in the near term (aided by 401K flows) and continue to
become more balanced between fixed income and equities, and money markets
to continue to witness outflows.
Company flow trends
1) ART’s long-term funds posted 1% ann. org growth; 2) BLK’s long-term funds
posted 18% ann. org growth (14% LTM avg), -19% inc money mkts; 3) FII’s LT
funds had 4% ann. org growth (18% LTM avg), and -64% inc money mkts; 4)
BEN’s LT funds posted 13% ann. org growth (10% LTM avg); 5) IVZ’s LT funds
had 10% ann. org growth (9% LTM avg), and -66% inc money mkts; 6) JNS’ LT
funds had 10% ann. org growth (12% LTM avg); 7) LM’s LT funds had 4% ann.
org growth (-1% LTM avg), and -13% inc money mkts; & 8) TROW’s LT funds
posted 13% ann. org growth (10% LTM avg).
Company performance and fund trends
Long-term relative investment performance remains solid pretty much across the
board for the covered public managers. Some notable fund tidbits: Industry ETF
inflows quadrupled sequentially to ~$21B in the month; BEN’s Templeton Global
Bond fund had ~$2.3B of inflows, over 70% of its total LT flows; JNS/Perkins
performance & flows are doing well, but Intech remains under pressure; TROW
had the most balanced flows into both equity and fixed income funds (ex ETFs); &
the accelerating money market outflow trend in the month hit BLK, FII, and IVZ the
hardest.
Sector outlook
Trends for the asset managers are mostly favorable, yet mixed, with upward
trending markets, LT inflows, and a positive mix shift tempered by some fx
headwinds, rising expenses, and money market outflows. That said, we continue
see opportunities in the sector, but remain selective in favoring those managers
with a broad product mix, diversified distribution, solid LT inv perf, exposure to
equities, deal synergies, more margin expansion, & a healthy balance sheet; top
picks are IVZ and TROW (both Buy). Our target prices tend to be based on P/E
ratios set in a peer context, reflecting elements such as earnings/growth levels
and performance. Key risks for the sector include weak markets and outflows
Table of Contents
Overview ............................................................................................ 4
Reading the charts and tables...................................................................................................5
Industry takeaways for the month ............................................................................................6
Public asset manager takeaways ..............................................................................................6
Fund Factor Guide – How to Read the Fund Factors ..............................................................10
Company Snapshots ...............................................................................................................13
Affiliated Managers Group......................................................................................................14
AllianceBernstein ....................................................................................................................16
Artio Global Investors..............................................................................................................18
BlackRock ...............................................................................................................................20
Calamos Investments .............................................................................................................22
Cohen & Steers.......................................................................................................................24
Eaton Vance ............................................................................................................................26
Federated Investors ................................................................................................................28
Fidelity....................................................................................................................................30
Franklin Resources..................................................................................................................32
GAMCO Investors...................................................................................................................34
INVESCO................................................................................................................................36
Janus Capital Group................................................................................................................38
Legg Mason...........................................................................................................................40
T. Rowe Price..........................................................................................................................42
The Capital Group Companies ................................................................................................44
Waddell & Reed......................................................................................................................46
Industry ..................................................................................................................................48
Appendix .......................................................................................... 50
Company Manager Composition ............................................................................................50
Definition Guide ......................................................................................................................51
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