2010年4月印度消费行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月印度消费行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
Recent outperformance, rising risks and
few near-term catalysts make riskreward
balance less attractive
 EPS growth to slow in 4Q due to
difficult comps
 Downgrade Dabur to Neutral, but raise
TPs on top picks ITC (20%), Asian
Paints (16%) and Nestlé India (13%)
4Q bottom-line growth to slow. We expect net profit
growth of 17.4% y-o-y in 4Q vs. 25.1% in the previous three
quarters due to relatively difficult gross margin comps. Our
4Q net profit estimates are 6.7% higher than consensus for
Nestlé, in line for ITC, and lower for all other stocks.
More cautious. We are becoming cautious on the sector as
we believe the risk-reward trade-off has deteriorated. While
stocks we cover, excluding HUL, have gone up by 8% in the
last three months, outperforming the broader market, the
earnings upgrade story for most has fully played out and
risks such as competition and input cost inflation are
increasing. While the industry demand outlook is intact, we
want to see PE multiples correct, competition soften and
product prices increase before turning bullish again.
Rating change. We downgrade Dabur to Neutral on full
valuations, increase in tax rates and possible increase in
competition from P&G in oral care and shampoos.
Our top picks. While we are less bullish on the sector as a
whole, three stocks within our universe of eight still stand
out. 1) ITC (OW), raise TP 19% – we are above consensus
as most states have not increased VAT and price increases
are significantly ahead of what is required to offset any tax
impact; 2) Asian Paints (OW), raise TP 12% – a big
beneficiary of the increase in consumer discretionary
spending, with relatively benign competition and robust
margins; 3) Nestlé (OW), raise TP 5.4% – a big beneficiary
of the under-penetrated and fast-growing F&B category;
likely to be able to pass on cost inflation to the consumer.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 消费行业 行业研究 Competition 研究报告 行业 印度 消费

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