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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月北欧钢铁行业研究报告
【作者】：法国农业信贷银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：60
【目录或简介】：
Cyclical ticks ahead, one Buy
􀁑 We favour Rautaruukki among Nordic steel companies
We reinitiate coverage of Outokumpu with a 3/Underperform and a
target price of EUR16, upgrade Rautaruukki to 1/Selected List (vs
2/Outperform) with a EUR22 target price (vs EUR18) and reiterate
our 3/Underperform on SSAB with a target price of SEK100 (vs
SEK85). Valuation is demanding from a cyclically adjusted
perspective, but Ruukki stands out as the most interesting case due
to its stronger balance sheet and lower valuation.
􀁑 Rautaruukki: relatively strong BS and call on Russia
Our main call for Rautaruukki is that we believe its relatively strong
balance sheet (ensuring long-term yields) and the option on Russia
are undervalued vs peers. Ruukki trades at a CAPE (cyclically
adjusted P/E) of 11.7x vs 16.4x for SSAB and 16.2x for Outokumpu.
Our DCF value for Ruukki is EUR30/share, indicating upside
potential of 81%.
􀁑 SSAB: weak balance sheet and over-loved stock
Our main concern for SSAB remains the relatively weak balance
sheet which, in our view, warrants a valuation discount vs the
current premium in today's markets, where we see SSAB as
overbought by investors. Valuation based on CAPE (on 10-year
average net profits) is stretched at 16.4x. SSAB remains the best
clean play on a global steel recovery as earnings are highly sensitive
to price movements. A ±10% move in prices translates into a
SEK5.10 change in EPS.
􀁑 Outokumpu: weak demand expected in Stainless
We reinitiate coverage of Outokumpu with a 3/Underperform rating
and a target price of EUR16. Even though the long-term case is
solid due to its backward integration, we argue that the valuation
already prices in a V-shaped recovery, which is not our base case
for stainless.
Summary
Within the Nordic region we prefer Rautaruukki (1/Selected list, TP EUR22/share)
We upgrade Rautaruukki to 1/Selected list rating (2/OP) with a target price of
EUR22/share (18), indicating 33% upside potential. We also retain our 3/Underperfrom
recommendation on SSAB with a target price of SEK100 (85). Furthermore, we resume
coverage of Outokumpu with 3/Underperform rating and a target price of EUR16/share.
Rautaruukki: relatively strong balance sheet implying solid dividends
Our main call for Rautaruukki is that we believe the relatively strong balance sheet
(ensuring long-term yields (EUR1/share) at around 6% on current share price) and the
option on Russia are undervalued vs peers. Ruukki trades at a CAPE of 11.7x vs 16.4x for
SSAB and 16.2x for Outokumpu. Our DCF value for Ruukki is EUR30/share, indicating
upside potential of 81%.
SSAB: weak balance sheet and over-loved stock
Our main concern for SSAB remains the relatively weak balance sheet which, in our view,
warrants a valuation discount vs the current premium in today's markets where we see
SSAB as overbought by investors. Cyclically adjusted (10Y average net profits) valuation
is stretched at a CAPE ratio of 16.4x. SSAB remains the best clean play on a global steel
recovery as earnings are highly sensitive to price movements. A ±10% move in prices
translates into a SEK5.10/share change in EPS.
Outokumpu: slow recovery expected in stainless
We reinitiate coverage of Outokumpu with a 3/Underperform rating and a target price of
EUR16. Long-term developments could be more interesting with the ferrochrome mines
(valued at EUR3.7/share), but lead times are long and we feel the shares are currently
discounting a lot of success.
Overall we are negative on European steels due to possible new destocking
We believe that European prices carry risks on the downside and the cost curve also
indicates limited upside potential.
Stainless: structural problems indicates difficulties for Outokumpu
Even if the worst is over for stainless in terms of transaction prices, we believe the sector
will be masked by overcapacity, which implies that it will be a long time until we see a
sustained recovery.
CONTENTS
Summary 2
I— Valuation: Nordics fully priced? 4
􀁑 Sector share price performance 4
􀁑 Our view of the Nordic steel arena 5
II— Steel market overview 7
􀁑 Europe: apparent demand driving volumes in H1-10E 7
􀁑 US: restocking drives volumes; H2-10 more difficult 11
􀁑 China: strong demand, but well balanced 13
III— Price increases to be short-lived 16
􀁑 Input costs to increase significantly 17
􀁑 Production costs expected to rise by ~USD130/t 18
􀁑 Steel prices set to peak in Q2-10; margins still under pressure 19
IV— Margins, ROCE depressed by low utilisation 22
􀁑 Margins expected at 2004 level 22
V— Stainless: structural problems 23
􀁑 Strong recovery in China; but risk of oversupply increases 25
􀁑 Supply/demand model for stainless 26
􀁑 Industry faces structural problems 26
VI— Company profiles 29
􀁑Outokumpu 30
􀁑 Rautaruukki 40
􀁑 SSAB 50
􀁑CHEUVREUX'S METALS & MINING TEAM
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