2010年5月美国电力设备行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月美国电力设备行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：226
        【目录或简介】：
Entering Phase 2 of the Cycle: Initiating
Coverage at Overweight
■ We are initiating coverage of the U.S. Electrical Equipment and Multi-
Industry (EE/MI) group at Overweight. We think that the initial sharp recovery
phase of the industrial cycle (Phase 1) is drawing to a close and we are entering
a period that will be characterized by a moderation in PMIs and IP growth rates
(Phase 2). Historically, EE/MI stocks perform strongly in Phase 2 and we believe
this pattern will recur in this cycle; several major end markets are yet to turn and
in the most recent cycle, sector organic growth rates peaked long after PMIs and
IP growth peaked. We therefore view share price corrections caused by
moderating lead indicators as buying opportunities.
■ Differentiation: To develop our views, in conjunction with other Credit Suisse
industrials analysts, we aggregated data from around 100 industrial companies
globally across nearly 20 different end markets. This cycle, we prefer industrial
automation, elevators and escalators, commercial aerospace, climate control
and critical power. We are more bullish regarding the outlook for European
industrial investment, but more concerned than most investors about the
downside risks of a slowdown in Chinese infrastructure spending. We believe the
U.S. EE/MI sector appears attractive relative to other U.S. industrial sectors, and
the HOLT® valuation framework suggests that the U.S. EE/MI sector is attractive
relative to European electrical equipment stocks.
■ Stock calls: Our Outperform-rated names are Emerson, United Technologies,
General Electric, and Cooper Industries. We are initiating coverage on Danaher,
Honeywell, Rockwell Automation and Tyco with Neutral ratings. Our preferred
valuation metrics are PEG ratios and EV/EBIT.

Table of Contents
Portfolio Manager’s Summary 3
Where Are We in the Cycle? 9
End Markets/Growth Analysis 22
Geographic Outlook 46
Earnings Momentum 49
Key Risks 57
Valuation and Price Performance 74
Stock Selection 83
Cooper Industries (CBE) 87
Investment summary 88
Summary financials 99
Danaher Corporation (DHR) 102
Investment Summary 103
Summary Financials 111
Emerson (EMR) 114
Investment Summary 115
Summary Financials 130
General Electric (GE) 133
Summary Financials 154
Honeywell International Inc. (HON) 157
Investment Summary 158
Summary Financials 169
Rockwell Automation (ROK) 172
Summary Financials 182
Tyco International, Ltd (TYC) 185
Summary Financials 194
United Technologies (UTX) 197
Summary Financials 214
Appendix 217

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